Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead Town
Football · National League. South
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived
- Feed close
- 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82from 1.80 · −1.1% CLV
- Score
- 0-0
· first seen 42m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7149
7144 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 61%–64%
Profit
−518.0u
over 7144u staked
Yield
−7.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2561 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2584 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 13 | 84.6%58%–96% | −6.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+5pp
14
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3965 | 58.5% | −346.2u |
| Double chance | 3184 | 67.8% | −171.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7149 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead TownFootball · National League. South | first seen 42m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82from 1.80 · −1.1% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Larne vs BangorFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.06-16673/500.06-16.67+0.06from 1.18 · +11.3% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Rungsted IK vs FrederikshavnIce Hockey · Metal Ligaen | first seen 44m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.60 · +3.2% CLV | 4-5 | LOST |
| Astoria Walldorf vs Stuttgarter KickersFootball · Regional League. South-West | first seen 14m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.98-10249/500.98-1.02+0.98from 2.02 · +2.0% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Kickers Offenbach vs TSV SteinbachFootball · Regional League. South-West | first seen 14m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.90 · +8.6% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| NEC Nijmegen vs ExcelsiorFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92from 1.57 · −18.2% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| AEK Athens vs LASKFootball · League phase | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.77 · +1.1% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Erbil vs DiyalaFootball · Superleague | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.47 · −18.3% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Nomme Kalju vs Nomme UnitedFootball · Superleague | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.42 · +9.2% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| NC Dinos vs Lotte GiantsBaseball · KBO | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | — | 4-6 | LOST |
| Samsung Lions vs KIA TigersBaseball · KBO | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.89-11289/1000.89-1.12+0.89derived | — | 6-4 | WON |
| Hanwha Eagles vs Doosan BearsBaseball · KBO | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | — | 6-1 | WON |
| LG Twins vs Kiwoom HeroesBaseball · KBO | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | — | 3-8 | LOST |
| Emelec vs MantaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.60 · 0.0% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Llaneros Villavicencio vs Deportes TolimaFootball · Serie A | first seen 2d 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 2.75+1757/41.75+1.75-0.57from 2.70 · −1.8% CLV | 2:3 | LOST |
| San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsBaseball · MLB | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00derived | — | 3-2 | WON |
| Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsBaseball · MLB | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00derived | — | 5-4 | WON |
| Halifax Wanderers vs CavalryFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 1.75 · −1.7% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Palermo vs SampdoriaFootball · Serie B | first seen 30m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.58-17229/500.58-1.72+0.58from 1.75 · +10.8% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla PlockFootball · Superleague | first seen 30m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 1.87 · −13.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Catania vs CosenzaFootball · Serie C. Group C | first seen 30m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.52 · −1.9% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago CubsBaseball · MLB | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92derived | — | 2:1 | WON |
| Kansas City Royals vs Arizona DiamondbacksBaseball · MLB | first seen 10m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.96-10424/250.96-1.04+0.96derived | — | 4-5 | WON |
| Al-Hilal SFC vs NeomFootball · Premier League | first seen 0m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.20 · +0.8% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi BeogradFootball · Superleague | first seen 0m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 3.35+23547/202.35+2.35-0.43from 3.10 · −7.5% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.