Estrela Amadora vs Braga
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived
- Feed close
- 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.65 · +6.5% CLV
- Score
- 2-1
· first seen 1h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7149
7144 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 61%–64%
Profit
−518.0u
over 7144u staked
Yield
−7.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2561 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2584 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 13 | 84.6%58%–96% | −6.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+5pp
14
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3965 | 58.5% | −346.2u |
| Double chance | 3184 | 67.8% | −171.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7149 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela Amadora vs BragaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.65 · +6.5% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Vissel Kobe vs Kashima AntlersFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 2.20+1206/51.20+1.20-0.83from 2.90 · +31.8% CLV | 2:1 | WON |
| FC Eindhoven vs DordrechtFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 2.20+1206/51.20+1.20-0.83from 2.20 · 0.0% CLV | 2:1 | WON |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-HazemFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.16-6254/250.16-6.25+0.16from 8.50 · +632.8% CLV | 5:1 | WON |
| Ried vs SalzburgFootball · Bundesliga | first seen 52m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.50 · 0.0% CLV | 1:1 | LOST |
| Rogle vs Red Bull SalzburgIce Hockey · Champions League | first seen 22m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.40 · 0.0% CLV | 5:0 | WON |
| AZ Alkmaar vs Willem IIFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.15-6673/200.15-6.67+0.15from 1.14 · −0.9% CLV | 1:1 | LOST |
| Empoli vs ArezzoFootball · Serie B | first seen 22m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.97-10397/1000.97-1.03+0.97from 2.05 · +4.1% CLV | 0:1 | LOST |
| Al-Faisaly Harmah vs Al-Ittihad JeddahFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.72 · +18.6% CLV | 2:1 | LOST |
| Al-Qadsiah El-Khobar vs Al-EttifaqFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.25 · 0.0% CLV | 0:0 | LOST |
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al ZawraaFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.50+1503/21.50+1.50-0.67from 2.90 · +16.0% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Al Jazira Al Hamra vs Dubai CityFootball · Division 1 | first seen 17h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 2.65+16533/201.65+1.65-0.61from 2.10 · −20.8% CLV | 1:1 | LOST |
| Irtysh Pavlodar vs BeibarysIce Hockey · Pro Hokei Ligasy | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.18-5569/500.18-5.56+0.18derived | 1.06-16673/500.06-16.67+0.06from 1.13 · +6.6% CLV | 1:6 | WON |
| Stevenage vs Luton TownFootball · League 1 | first seen 57m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 3.25+2259/42.25+2.25-0.44from 2.90 · −10.8% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Manchester United vs Sabah BakuFootball · League phase | first seen 57m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.07-14297/1000.07-14.29+0.07from 1.12 · +4.7% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Tampines Rovers vs Balestier KhalsaFootball · Premier League | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.30 · −3.7% CLV | 2:0 | WON |
| KIA Tigers vs SSG LandersBaseball · KBO | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | — | 5:2 | WON |
| Oakleigh Cannons vs South MelbourneFootball · Victoria. National Premier League. Semi-finals | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.18+11859/501.18+1.18-0.85from 2.12 · −2.8% CLV | 2:1 | WON |
| Municipal Limeno (r) vs Aguila San Miguel (r)Football · Reserve League | first seen 12m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 2.95+19539/201.95+1.95-0.51from 3.05 · +3.4% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Panathinaikos vs KifisiaFootball · Superleague 1 | first seen 12m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.28 · +2.4% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Orix Buffaloes vs Saitama Seibu LionsBaseball · NPB | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | — | 4:8 | WON |
| Limoges Hand 87 vs USM Saran HBHandball · Star League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.15-6673/200.15-6.67+0.15from 1.13 · −1.7% CLV | 28-30 | LOST |
| Kolner Haie vs FrolundaIce Hockey · Champions League | first seen 56m before | AwayMatch Winner | 2.33+133133/1001.33+1.33-0.75derived | 2.02+10251/501.02+1.02-0.98from 1.87 · −7.4% CLV | 5-2 | LOST |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston AstrosBaseball · MLB | first seen 31m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| Storhamar vs KlagenfurtIce Hockey · Champions League | first seen 26m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.80 · −2.7% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
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