Deportivo Moron vs Almagro
Football · Primera Nacional
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived
- Feed close
- 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.60 · 0.0% CLV
- Score
- 2-0
· first seen 4h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
4013
4012 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−215.3u
over 4012u staked
Yield
−5.4%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 759 | 55.3%52%–59% | −0.6pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1507 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.9pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1525 | 70.3%68%–73% | −4.7pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 207 | 71.5%65%–77% | −8.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
909
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±86.5u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2024 | 68.5% | −86.9u |
| Match winner | 1989 | 60.4% | −128.4u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 739 | 67.3% | −21.1u |
| Superleague | 341 | 61.3% | −40.4u |
| League 1 | 325 | 67.1% | −11.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 206 | 59.2% | +18.1u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 104 | 65.4% | −5.2u |
| Serie B | 101 | 62.4% | −7.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 79 | 63.3% | −5.8u |
| Championship | 76 | 65.8% | −4.4u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 4013 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Moron vs AlmagroFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.60 · 0.0% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Agropecuario vs Ciudad BolivarFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.78 · −1.1% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Al-Ittihad Jeddah vs Al-KholoodFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.42 · −8.4% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Krasnodar vs AkhmatFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.55 · −3.1% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Sturm vs Rheindorf AltachFootball · Bundesliga | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.68 · +3.7% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Dacia Buiucani vs PetrocubFootball · Superleague | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.42 · −8.4% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Wiltz vs DifferdangeFootball · Division Nationale | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.47 · +5.0% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Connecticut Sun (w) vs New York Liberty (w)Basketball · WNBA | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 75-82 | WON |
| Oviedo vs GranadaFootball · Segunda Division | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 1.70 · −15.0% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Khor Fakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli DubaiFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.45 · +3.6% CLV | 1-5 | WON |
| Deportivo Camioneros vs Deportivo MerloFootball · Primera B Metropolitana | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.57-17557/1000.57-1.75+0.57from 1.55 · −1.3% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Fatih Karagumruk vs UmraniyesporFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.62 · +5.9% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Kasimpasa SK vs TrabzonsporFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92from 1.80 · −6.2% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Shams Azar vs Persepolis TehranFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.55 · 0.0% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| Slovan Bratislava vs RuzomberokFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32from 1.30 · −1.5% CLV | 5-0 | WON |
| Nafta Lendava vs CeljeFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 2.12+11228/251.12+1.12-0.89from 1.75 · −17.5% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Kazincbarcika vs Kozarmisleny SEFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.65 · −5.7% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC RustaviFootball · National League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.08+10827/251.08+1.08-0.93from 2.12 · +1.9% CLV | 0-3 | LOST |
| PK-35 Helsinki vs Klubi 04Football · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.68-14717/250.68-1.47+0.68from 1.60 · −4.8% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Ordabasy vs Altay OskemenFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.16-6254/250.16-6.25+0.16from 1.22 · +5.2% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Karpaty Lviv vs Bukovyna ChernivtsiFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.77-13077/1000.77-1.30+0.77from 1.65 · −6.8% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger ACFootball · Bundesliga | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.98-10249/500.98-1.02+0.98from 2.00 · +1.0% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| FC Volendam vs OssFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43from 1.33 · −7.0% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Frydek-Mistek vs VsetinFootball · League 3 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.38 · −4.8% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Willem II vs NEC NijmegenFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.60 · +3.2% CLV | 1-4 | WON |
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