FC Siauliai vs Panevezys
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived
- Feed close
- 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 2.25 · +12.5% CLV
- Score
- 1-0
· first seen 1h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3962
3961 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−213.8u
over 3961u staked
Yield
−5.4%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W1
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 741 | 55.2%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1495 | 62.3%60%–65% | −4.0pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1508 | 70.6%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 203 | 70.9%64%–77% | −9.4pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
858
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.8u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2005 | 68.5% | −85.8u |
| Match winner | 1957 | 60.4% | −127.9u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 732 | 67.2% | −21.0u |
| Superleague | 335 | 61.2% | −40.2u |
| League 1 | 321 | 67.3% | −10.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 192 | 59.9% | +19.1u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 103 | 66.0% | −4.2u |
| Serie B | 99 | 61.6% | −8.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 74 | 64.9% | −5.2u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3962 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Siauliai vs PanevezysFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 2.25 · +12.5% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| Sao Paulo vs BolivarFootball · Round of 16. Second leg | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 6.90 · +392.9% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Kansas City Royals vs AthleticsBaseball · MLB | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | — | 4-3 | WON |
| Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta BravesBaseball · MLB | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | — | 4-1 | LOST |
| River Plate Montevideo vs Miramar MisionesFootball · Segunda Division | first seen 54m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92from 1.95 · +1.6% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Sundsvall vs HelsingborgFootball · League 1 | first seen 54m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 2.00 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| New York Mets vs San Diego PadresBaseball · MLB | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92derived | — | 2-5 | WON |
| Boston Red Sox vs Arizona DiamondbacksBaseball · MLB | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.96-10424/250.96-1.04+0.96derived | — | 9-4 | LOST |
| Universitatea Craiova vs KuPS KuopioFootball · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.40 · +5.3% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Pogon Szczecin vs Motor LublinFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.97 · +3.7% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Hiroshima Toyo Carp vs Chunichi DragonsBaseball · NPB | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92derived | — | 11-4 | LOST |
| Hanshin Tigers vs Tokyo Yakult SwallowsBaseball · NPB | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.89-11289/1000.89-1.12+0.89derived | — | 3-2 | WON |
| Yokohama BayStars vs Yomiuri GiantsBaseball · NPB | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.96-10424/250.96-1.04+0.96derived | — | 4-3 | LOST |
| Merthyr Town vs TelfordFootball · National league. North | first seen 35m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 2.30+13013/101.30+1.30-0.77from 2.45 · +6.5% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Horsham vs Hampton and Richmond BoroughFootball · National League. South | first seen 35m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82from 2.17 · +19.2% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Brackley Town vs Kings Lynn TownFootball · National league. North | first seen 35m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.12 · −1.4% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| Hereford vs RadcliffeFootball · National league. North | first seen 35m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.95-10519/200.95-1.05+0.95from 1.95 · 0.0% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Hednesford Town vs SouthportFootball · National league. North | first seen 35m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.20 · +2.3% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Hemel Hempstead Town vs Maidenhead UnitedFootball · National League. South | first seen 35m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.20+1206/51.20+1.20-0.83from 2.20 · 0.0% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Fram Reykjavik vs StjarnanFootball · Premier League | first seen 8m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.88 · +4.4% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Casa Pia vs BenficaFootball · Premier League | first seen 8m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.15-6673/200.15-6.67+0.15from 1.20 · +4.3% CLV | 0-7 | WON |
| Racing Montevideo vs Nacional MontevideoFootball · Premier League | first seen 36m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 3.10+21021/102.10+2.10-0.48from 3.15 · +1.6% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Sekhukhune United vs Polokwane CityFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 2.30+13013/101.30+1.30-0.77from 2.35 · +2.2% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Samorin vs Banik LehotaFootball · League 2 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.60 · +6.7% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| Pribram vs ProstejovFootball · League 2 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.80 · −2.7% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
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