Aris Limassol vs Karmiotissa
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived
- Feed close
- 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.37 · −2.1% CLV
- Score
- 1:0
· first seen 3h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6222
6218 graded · 4 void
Win rate
63.3%
95% CI 62%–65%
Profit
−421.6u
over 6218u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 37 | 43.2%29%–59% | −1.7pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1201 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2295 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2325 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 350 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 9 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3115
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±108.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 130 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3250 | 58.9% | −278.6u |
| Double chance | 2972 | 68.2% | −143.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1094 | 65.5% | −58.8u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 307 | 62.5% | +42.9u |
| League 2 | 225 | 58.7% | −33.7u |
| Division 1 | 171 | 59.6% | −24.9u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 135 | 61.5% | −11.2u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 95 | 52.6% | −20.5u |
| National league | 87 | 54.0% | −18.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6222 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Limassol vs KarmiotissaFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.37 · −2.1% CLV | 1:0 | WON |
| Arzignano Valchiampo vs RenateFootball · Serie C. Group A | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 2.40+1407/51.40+1.40-0.71from 2.45 · +2.1% CLV | 0:0 | LOST |
| Getafe vs MalagaFootball · Primera Division. Season 26/27 | first seen 23m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.88-11422/250.88-1.14+0.88from 2.02 · +7.4% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Vaduz vs ThunFootball · Superleague | first seen 23m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 2.35+13527/201.35+1.35-0.74from 2.35 · 0.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Royal Antwerp vs Union Saint-GilloiseFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.58 · +1.9% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| Nice vs LilleFootball · Ligue 1. Season 26/27 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 2.13+113113/1001.13+1.13-0.88from 2.02 · −5.2% CLV | 2:1 | LOST |
| Rot-Weiss Essen vs Hansa RostockFootball · Bundesliga 3 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 2.05 · +10.8% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Viking vs LillestromFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.40 · +7.7% CLV | 3:0 | WON |
| Sukhothai vs Port BangkokFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.57 · −4.8% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva MarijampoleFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.65 · +6.5% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Sundsvall vs LjungskileFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.68-14717/250.68-1.47+0.68from 1.85 · +10.1% CLV | 3-2 | LOST |
| Ogre United vs Super NovaFootball · Virsliga | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 2.08+10827/251.08+1.08-0.93from 2.08 · 0.0% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| Celtic vs RangersFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.18 · +1.4% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Chonburi vs Buriram UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.55 · −3.1% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Fiorentina vs NapoliFootball · Serie A. Season 26/27 | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 2.30+13013/101.30+1.30-0.77from 2.25 · −2.2% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Feyenoord vs UtrechtFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.25 · −3.8% CLV | 5-0 | WON |
| Montpellier Handball vs HBC NantesHandball · Star League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 2.08+10827/251.08+1.08-0.93derived | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92from 2.20 · +14.6% CLV | 38:28 | WON |
| Pohang Steelers vs FC SeoulFootball · Superleague | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.80 · +5.9% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Rakuten Monkeys vs TSG HawksBaseball · CPBL | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | — | 10-1 | LOST |
| Tensung vs DrukpaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.45 · 0.0% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA SofiaFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.48 · −3.3% CLV | 2:0 | LOST |
| Ramnicu Valcea vs Bihor OradeaFootball · League 2 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.87-11587/1000.87-1.15+0.87from 1.65 · −11.8% CLV | 3-2 | LOST |
| Unicov vs SC Uhersky BrodFootball · League 3 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.70 · +6.3% CLV | 4-3 | WON |
| Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa ReysolFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 2.35+13527/201.35+1.35-0.74from 2.55 · +8.5% CLV | 2-4 | LOST |
| Gamba Osaka vs Vissel KobeFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 2.02+10251/501.02+1.02-0.98from 2.15 · +6.4% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
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