Monaco vs Lens
Football · Ligue 1. Season 26/27
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived
- Feed close
- 1.83-12083/1000.83-1.20+0.83from 2.05 · +12.0% CLV
- Score
- 2:1
· first seen 39m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7149
7144 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 61%–64%
Profit
−518.0u
over 7144u staked
Yield
−7.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2561 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2584 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 13 | 84.6%58%–96% | −6.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+5pp
14
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3965 | 58.5% | −346.2u |
| Double chance | 3184 | 67.8% | −171.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7149 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco vs LensFootball · Ligue 1. Season 26/27 | first seen 39m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.83-12083/1000.83-1.20+0.83from 2.05 · +12.0% CLV | 2:1 | WON |
| Bayern vs Union BerlinFootball · Bundesliga. Season 26/27 | first seen 24m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.04-25001/250.04-25.00+0.04from 1.12 · +7.7% CLV | 2:3 | LOST |
| Noah vs VanFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.03-33333/1000.03-33.33+0.03from 1.04 · +1.0% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Harju Laagri vs KuressaareFootball · Superleague | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 1.95 · −9.3% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Spisska Nova Ves vs ZilinaIce Hockey · Extra-liga | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 2.17+117117/1001.17+1.17-0.85derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.65 · +3.9% CLV | 2-7 | LOST |
| KalPa vs IlvesIce Hockey · Liiga | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 2.50+1503/21.50+1.50-0.67derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.50 · −2.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| VERVA Litvinov vs PardubiceIce Hockey · Extra-liga | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 2.38+13869/501.38+1.38-0.72derived | 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.75 · +7.4% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Jukurit vs PelicansIce Hockey · Liiga | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 2.17+117117/1001.17+1.17-0.85derived | 2.75+1757/41.75+1.75-0.57from 2.75 · 0.0% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| KPV Kokkola vs KuPS 2 KuopioFootball · League 2. Relegation group | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 2.00 · +8.1% CLV | 3-2 | LOST |
| Shinnik vs KAMAZFootball · League 1. Season 26/27 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 2.20+1206/51.20+1.20-0.83from 1.93 · −12.3% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| UTA Arad vs Sepsi Sfantu GheorgheFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.83 · −1.1% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Komarov vs StrakoniceFootball · League 4 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.55 · 0.0% CLV | 4-4 | LOST |
| Aktobe vs Ulytau ZhezkazganFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.34-29417/500.34-2.94+0.34from 1.50 · +11.9% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Shkendija vs Bashkimi KumanovoFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.04-25001/250.04-25.00+0.04from 1.06 · +1.9% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Winterthur vs AarauFootball · Challenge League | first seen 9m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.87-11587/1000.87-1.15+0.87from 2.13 · +13.9% CLV | 2:1 | WON |
| Groningen vs PEC ZwolleFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.58 · +1.9% CLV | 3:0 | WON |
| Oss vs DordrechtFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 2.17+117117/1001.17+1.17-0.85from 2.40 · +10.6% CLV | 3:0 | WON |
| Rapid Bucuresti vs Arges PitestiFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.65 · +10.0% CLV | 3:1 | WON |
| Jong Ajax vs Roda KerkradeFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 1.85 · −7.5% CLV | 0:0 | LOST |
| Sochi vs SKA KhabarovskFootball · League 1. Season 26/27 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.40 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Sileks vs Tikvesh 1930Football · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 3.60+26013/52.60+2.60-0.38from 3.15 · −12.5% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Turan Turkistan vs Elimai 2Football · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | — | 4-1 | WON |
| Bandirmaspor vs UmraniyesporFootball · League 1 | first seen 59m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.70 · −2.9% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Petah TikvaFootball · Premier League | first seen 44m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.37 · +3.0% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Polissya Zhytomyr vs KryvbasFootball · Premier League | first seen 29m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27from 1.30 · +2.4% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
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