Abejas de Leon vs Panteras de Aguascalientes
Basketball · LNBP
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.89-11289/1000.89-1.12+0.89derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 87-102
· first seen 5h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3958
3957 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−211.4u
over 3957u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W1
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 740 | 55.3%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1493 | 62.3%60%–65% | −4.0pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1507 | 70.6%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 203 | 70.9%64%–77% | −9.4pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
854
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.8u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2004 | 68.6% | −84.8u |
| Match winner | 1954 | 60.4% | −126.6u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 732 | 67.2% | −21.0u |
| Superleague | 334 | 61.1% | −40.8u |
| League 1 | 321 | 67.3% | −10.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 192 | 59.9% | +19.1u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 103 | 66.0% | −4.2u |
| Serie B | 99 | 61.6% | −8.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 74 | 64.9% | −5.2u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3958 picks with a captured kickoff.
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Baseball · MLB
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· first seen 4h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abejas de Leon vs Panteras de AguascalientesBasketball · LNBP | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.89-11289/1000.89-1.12+0.89derived | — | 87-102 | LOST |
| Deportivo San Pedro vs Aurora GuatemalaFootball · Liga Nacional | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.50 · −6.3% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Erbil vs Al KahrabaaFootball · Superleague | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 1.55 · −12.9% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Deportivo Paraguayo vs Sportivo BarracasFootball · Primera C Metropolitana | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 3.70+27027/102.70+2.70-0.37from 3.70 · 0.0% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| KR Reykjavik vs BreidablikFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.52 · −1.9% CLV | 3-3 | LOST |
| Ullensaker/Kisa vs Trygg/LadeFootball · Division 2. Group 2 | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.85+18537/201.85+1.85-0.54from 3.10 · +8.8% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Mallorca vs ValladolidFootball · Segunda Division | first seen 36m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.68 · +1.8% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Bryne vs MossFootball · Division 1 | first seen 55m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.57-17557/1000.57-1.75+0.57from 1.55 · −1.3% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Angelholms vs TrollhattanFootball · Division 2. South | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.88-11422/250.88-1.14+0.88from 1.77 · −5.9% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Almere City vs Jong PSV EindhovenFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.60 · 0.0% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| JaPS vs HakaFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52from 1.63 · +7.2% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| San Marcos Arica vs Union San FelipeFootball · Serie B | first seen 17m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43from 1.43 · 0.0% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Vikingur Gota vs B-68 ToftirFootball · Premier League | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.27 · +6.7% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Stabaek vs LynFootball · Division 1 | first seen 30m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47from 1.37 · −6.8% CLV | 4-3 | WON |
| Torquay United vs HorshamFootball · National League. South | first seen 30m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.38-26319/500.38-2.63+0.38from 1.25 · −9.4% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Maidstone United vs FarnboroughFootball · National League. South | first seen 30m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.53 · 0.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Geraldton Buccaneers vs Willetton TigersBasketball · NBL 1. West. Play-offs | first seen 10h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20derived | — | 78-74 | WON |
| TSG Hawks vs Uni-LionsBaseball · CPBL | first seen 52m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.96-10424/250.96-1.04+0.96derived | — | 0-8 | WON |
| Rakuten Monkeys vs Fubon GuardiansBaseball · CPBL | first seen 52m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.89-11289/1000.89-1.12+0.89derived | — | 0-5 | LOST |
| Lotte Giants vs Kiwoom HeroesBaseball · KBO | first seen 17m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | — | 15-10 | WON |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles DodgersBaseball · MLB | first seen 33m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | — | 5-11 | WON |
| Throttur Reykjavik vs Fylkir ReykjavikFootball · Division 1 | first seen 8m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.88 · +4.4% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| FC Siauliai vs PanevezysFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 2.25 · +12.5% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| Sao Paulo vs BolivarFootball · Round of 16. Second leg | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 6.90 · +392.9% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Kansas City Royals vs AthleticsBaseball · MLB | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | — | 4-3 | WON |
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