Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Braga U19
Football · U19. National league. Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived
- Feed close
- 2.45+14529/201.45+1.45-0.69from 2.10 · −14.3% CLV
- Score
- 1-2
· first seen 13h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7147
7142 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−517.8u
over 7142u staked
Yield
−7.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
W2
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1480 | 55.3%53%–58% | −0.5pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2561 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2583 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 13 | 84.6%58%–96% | −6.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+8pp
12
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3964 | 58.5% | −347.0u |
| Double chance | 3183 | 67.8% | −170.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7147 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Braga U19Football · U19. National league. Division 1 | first seen 13h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 2.45+14529/201.45+1.45-0.69from 2.10 · −14.3% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Bromley vs HuddersfieldFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.48 · −10.3% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Oxford United vs Cambridge UnitedFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.97-10397/1000.97-1.03+0.97from 1.95 · −1.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Aris Thessaloniki vs Iraklis ThessalonikiFootball · Superleague 1 | first seen 33m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.62 · −1.8% CLV | 1:1 | LOST |
| Mafra U19 vs Benfica U19Football · U19. National league. Division 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.20 · −4.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| BSK Banja Luka vs Radnik BijeljinaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 2.30+13013/101.30+1.30-0.77from 2.35 · +2.2% CLV | 4-4 | LOST |
| Dosta Bystrc-Kninicky vs Tatran BohuniceFootball · League 4 | first seen 40m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.50 · 0.0% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Nove Sady vs Prostejov 2Football · League 4 | first seen 40m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28from 1.37 · +7.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Borussia Monchengladbach vs MainzFootball · Bundesliga. Season 26/27 | first seen 40m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.10+11011/101.10+1.10-0.91from 2.20 · +4.8% CLV | 3-4 | WON |
| Frydek-Mistek vs HavirovFootball · League 3 | first seen 40m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.18-5569/500.18-5.56+0.18from 1.19 · +0.8% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Trebic vs Slovan Havlickuv BrodFootball · League 4 | first seen 40m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.83 · −1.1% CLV | 2-0 | LOST |
| Bedrichov vs PelhrimovFootball · League 4 | first seen 40m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.60 · 0.0% CLV | 1-5 | WON |
| Unie Hlubina vs Polanka nad OdrouFootball · League 3 | first seen 40m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.35 · +1.5% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Bytca vs Banik LehotaFootball · League 2 | first seen 40m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.45 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Humenne vs Inter BratislavaFootball · League 2 | first seen 40m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.82 · −4.2% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| HV71 vs MalmoIce Hockey · SHL | first seen 25m before | HomeMatch Winner | 2.04+10426/251.04+1.04-0.96derived | 2.45+14529/201.45+1.45-0.69from 2.40 · −2.0% CLV | 4-5 | LOST |
| Frolunda vs Vaxjo LakersIce Hockey · SHL | first seen 25m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 1.80 · +1.1% CLV | 5-4 | WON |
| Skelleftea vs BrynasIce Hockey · SHL | first seen 25m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.83-12083/1000.83-1.20+0.83from 1.85 · +1.1% CLV | 7-2 | WON |
| Linkoping vs Timra IKIce Hockey · SHL | first seen 25m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 2.00 · 0.0% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Eskilstuna United (w) vs Hacken (w)Football · Women. Major League | first seen 10m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.14-7147/500.14-7.14+0.14from 1.20 · +5.3% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
| Brattvag vs Eik TonsbergFootball · Division 2. Group 1 | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.25 · +5.0% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| JDFS Alberts vs Metta/LUFootball · League 1 | first seen 10m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.32 · +1.5% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Venezia U19 vs Brescia U19Football · U19. Primavera 2 | first seen 10m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 2.95+19539/201.95+1.95-0.51from 2.95 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Cremonese vs Virtus EntellaFootball · Serie B | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 2.10+11011/101.10+1.10-0.91from 1.75 · −16.7% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| HJS Akatemia vs Pallo-IirotFootball · League 3. Group B | first seen 10m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 3.20+22011/52.20+2.20-0.45from 2.75 · −14.1% CLV | 4-1 | LOST |
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