Ross County vs Montrose
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived
- Feed close
- 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.25 · −10.7% CLV
- Score
- 2-1
· first seen 30m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7156
7151 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−517.0u
over 7151u staked
Yield
−7.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
W2
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2565 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2586 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 14 | 85.7%60%–96% | −5.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+8pp
21
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3971 | 58.5% | −345.4u |
| Double chance | 3185 | 67.8% | −171.5u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7156 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross County vs MontroseFootball · League 1 | first seen 30m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.25 · −10.7% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Saint Mirren vs St JohnstoneFootball · Premier League | first seen 30m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 2.45+14529/201.45+1.45-0.69from 2.30 · −6.1% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Fylde vs WealdstoneFootball · National league | first seen 30m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82from 1.95 · +7.1% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2000Football · Virsliga | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.75 · +12.9% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Zhetysu vs OrdabasyFootball · Premier League | first seen 47m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.55 · 0.0% CLV | 0-4 | WON |
| Radomiak Radom vs Gornik ZabrzeFootball · Superleague | first seen 32m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.45 · −3.9% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Lokomotiv Leipzig vs Hertha 2 BerlinFootball · Regional League. North-East | first seen 17m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.38-26319/500.38-2.63+0.38from 1.38 · 0.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| MSV Duisburg vs MeppenFootball · Bundesliga 3 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.45 · 0.0% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Ingolstadt 04 vs Wurzburger KickersFootball · Bundesliga 3 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.68-14717/250.68-1.47+0.68from 1.60 · −4.8% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Honefoss vs Ullensaker/KisaFootball · Division 2. Group 2 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23from 1.27 · +3.3% CLV | 9-1 | WON |
| Valerenga vs Bodo/GlimtFootball · Superleague | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.45 · 0.0% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Heidenheim vs OsnabruckFootball · Bundesliga 2 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.62 · −1.8% CLV | 4-3 | WON |
| Bucheon 1995 vs FC GwangjuFootball · Superleague | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.90 · +2.7% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Paju Frontier vs Suwon CityFootball · K League 2 | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.67 · −1.8% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Magdeburg vs Eintracht BraunschweigFootball · Bundesliga 2 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.73 · −1.1% CLV | 1-6 | LOST |
| South Adelaide Panthers vs Forestville EaglesBasketball · NBL 1. Central. Final | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | — | 58-77 | LOST |
| Skanstes vs RezekneFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.22-45511/500.22-4.55+0.22from 1.35 · +10.7% CLV | 5-1 | WON |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs JEF UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.45 · +7.4% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Kashiwa Reysol vs Mito HollyHockFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.55 · −6.1% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Norths Bears vs Central Coast CrusadersBasketball · NBL 1. East. Semi-finals | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.16-6254/250.16-6.25+0.16derived | — | 94-80 | WON |
| Illawarra Hawks Waratah vs Sutherland SharksBasketball · NBL 1. East. Semi-finals | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | — | 79-85 | LOST |
| Eltham Wildcats vs Nunawading SpectresBasketball · NBL 1. South. Semi-finals | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19derived | — | 91-89 | WON |
| Melbourne Tigers vs Frankston BluesBasketball · NBL 1. South. Semi-finals | first seen 56m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 79-82 | LOST |
| Targu Mures vs Cetatea SuceavaFootball · League 2 | first seen 26m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.42-23821/500.42-2.38+0.42from 1.35 · −4.9% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| CSA Steaua Bucuresti vs Ramnicu ValceaFootball · League 2 | first seen 26m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.53 · 0.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
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