Almirante Brown vs Ciudad Bolivar
Football · Primera Nacional
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived
- Feed close
- 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.85 · 0.0% CLV
- Score
- 2-0
· first seen 4h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7156
7151 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−517.0u
over 7151u staked
Yield
−7.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
W2
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2565 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2586 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 14 | 85.7%60%–96% | −5.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+8pp
21
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3971 | 58.5% | −345.4u |
| Double chance | 3185 | 67.8% | −171.5u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7156 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almirante Brown vs Ciudad BolivarFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.85 · 0.0% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta PragueFootball · Superleague | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.95-10519/200.95-1.05+0.95from 1.78 · −8.7% CLV | 2-0 | LOST |
| Talleres Remedios vs Argentino MerloFootball · Primera B Metropolitana | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.57-17557/1000.57-1.75+0.57from 1.65 · +5.1% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Radnichki Kragujevac vs ZemunFootball · Superleague | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37from 1.33 · −2.9% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Agropecuario vs Atletico GuemesFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.70 · 0.0% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Atletico Tucuman vs SarmientoFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.80 · −2.7% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| CSKA Moscow vs RostovFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 4.40+34017/53.40+3.40-0.29from 5.30 · +20.5% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Real Sireti vs BaltiFootball · Superleague | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.77-13077/1000.77-1.30+0.77from 2.60 · +46.9% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Deportivo Mixco vs MarquenseFootball · Liga Nacional | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52from 1.42 · −6.6% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Vitoria Guimaraes vs AroucaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.85 · −2.6% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Tondela vs AmaranteFootball · Division 2 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.60 · +3.2% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Brampton Honet Badgers vs Niagara River LionsBasketball · CEBL | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | — | 91-81 | WON |
| Atletico Fenix vs La LuzFootball · Segunda Division | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92from 1.98 · +3.1% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Ruzomberok vs Zeleziarne PodbrezovaFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.65+16533/201.65+1.65-0.61from 2.50 · −5.7% CLV | 1-4 | WON |
| Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA 1948 SofiaFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.45 · −3.9% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann LitauenFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.38-26319/500.38-2.63+0.38from 1.30 · −5.8% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Lausanne Sports vs Young BoysFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.92 · +16.4% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Farul Constanta vs Csikszereda Miercurea CiucFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.48 · −1.3% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Vitebsk vs Neman GrodnoFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 3.85+28557/202.85+2.85-0.35from 3.65 · −5.2% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Norrkoping vs BrageFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.48 · −4.5% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Politehnica UTM vs MilsamiFootball · Superleague | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 3.30+23023/102.30+2.30-0.43from 2.60 · −21.2% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Kaspiy Aktau vs Ulytau ZhezkazganFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.15 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| FC Smiltene-BJSS vs ValmieraFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.17-58817/1000.17-5.88+0.17from 1.14 · −2.6% CLV | 1-4 | WON |
| Slovan Galanta vs PetrzalkaFootball · League 2 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.40 · +3.7% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
| SJK Akatemia vs PK-35 HelsinkiFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.85 · +5.7% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
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