FS Elgava vs FC Riga
Football · Virsliga
AwayMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived
- Feed close
- 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23from 1.37 · +11.4% CLV
- Score
- 0-1
· first seen 10m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6222
6218 graded · 4 void
Win rate
63.3%
95% CI 62%–65%
Profit
−421.6u
over 6218u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 37 | 43.2%29%–59% | −1.7pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1201 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2295 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2325 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 350 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 9 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3115
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±108.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 130 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3250 | 58.9% | −278.6u |
| Double chance | 2972 | 68.2% | −143.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1094 | 65.5% | −58.8u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 307 | 62.5% | +42.9u |
| League 2 | 225 | 58.7% | −33.7u |
| Division 1 | 171 | 59.6% | −24.9u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 135 | 61.5% | −11.2u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 95 | 52.6% | −20.5u |
| National league | 87 | 54.0% | −18.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6222 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FS Elgava vs FC RigaFootball · Virsliga | first seen 10m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23from 1.37 · +11.4% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Varbergs BoIS vs BrageFootball · League 1 | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.60 · −1.2% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Richards Bay vs Sekhukhune UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 10m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.03+103103/1001.03+1.03-0.97from 2.25 · +10.8% CLV | 2-3 | WON |
| Oddevold vs VarnamoFootball · League 1 | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 2.20+1206/51.20+1.20-0.83from 2.05 · −6.8% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Honka vs AIFKFootball · League 3. Group B | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.13-76913/1000.13-7.69+0.13from 1.32 · +16.8% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Mlada Boleslav vs Zbrojovka BrnoFootball · Superleague | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 2.45+14529/201.45+1.45-0.69from 2.20 · −10.2% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Mashal Mubarek vs PakhtakorFootball · Superleague | first seen 10m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.15-6673/200.15-6.67+0.15from 1.20 · +4.3% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Fleury 91 vs ThionvilleFootball · Ligue 3 | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.87-11587/1000.87-1.15+0.87from 1.93 · +3.2% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| La Roche-sur-Yon vs ValenciennesFootball · Ligue 3 | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.13+113113/1001.13+1.13-0.88from 2.13 · 0.0% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Rouen vs AubagneFootball · Ligue 3 | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.55 · +1.3% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Amiens vs OrleansFootball · Ligue 3 | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 2.03 · +1.5% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Cosenza vs ScafateseFootball · Serie C. Group C | first seen 5h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 2.65+16533/201.65+1.65-0.61from 2.95 · +11.3% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Rot-Weiss Erfurt vs Erzgebirge AueFootball · Regional League. North-East | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 2.12+11228/251.12+1.12-0.89from 2.12 · 0.0% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Koninklijke vs AmsterdamFootball · Division 2 | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 2.40+1407/51.40+1.40-0.71from 2.65 · +10.4% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
| HIFK vs LukkoIce Hockey · Liiga | first seen 5h before | AwayMatch Winner | 2.27+127127/1001.27+1.27-0.79derived | 2.50+1503/21.50+1.50-0.67from 2.60 · +4.0% CLV | 2-3 | WON |
| Schalke 04 2 vs Sportfreunde LotteFootball · Regional League. West | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.50 · +11.1% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Racing Ferrol vs BarakaldoFootball · Primera RFEF. Group 1 | first seen 2d 17h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 3.30+23023/102.30+2.30-0.43from 3.65 · +10.6% CLV | 7:2 | LOST |
| Wacker Burghausen vs Augsburg 2Football · Regional League. Bavaria | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 2.13+113113/1001.13+1.13-0.88from 2.25 · +5.6% CLV | 5-2 | WON |
| Follo vs Eidsvold TurnFootball · Division 2. Group 2 | first seen 5h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.28 · +2.4% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| SK St. Johann in Tirol vs LochauFootball · Regional League. West | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.65 · +7.8% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| FC Jazz vs VJS VantaaFootball · League 2. Relegation group | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.05+10521/201.05+1.05-0.95from 2.60 · +26.8% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| Bayern (w) vs Koln (w)Football · Women. Bundesliga | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.15-6673/200.15-6.67+0.15from 1.14 · −0.9% CLV | 5-2 | WON |
| Hoffenheim 2 vs MeppenFootball · Bundesliga 3 | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.90 · +17.3% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Boulogne vs NantesFootball · Ligue 2 | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 3.65+26553/202.65+2.65-0.38from 3.60 · −1.4% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Chelsea (w) vs Birmingham City (w)Football · Women. Superleague | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.05-20001/200.05-20.00+0.05from 1.05 · 0.0% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.