De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived
- Feed close
- 1.95-10519/200.95-1.05+0.95from 1.67 · −14.4% CLV
- Score
- 2-5
· first seen 4h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7154
7149 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−517.5u
over 7149u staked
Yield
−7.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2565 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2584 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 14 | 85.7%60%–96% | −5.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+6pp
19
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3970 | 58.5% | −345.7u |
| Double chance | 3184 | 67.8% | −171.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7154 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap vs Jong AZ AlkmaarFootball · Division 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 1.95-10519/200.95-1.05+0.95from 1.67 · −14.4% CLV | 2-5 | LOST |
| IR Reykjavik vs NjardvikFootball · Division 1 | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.83-12083/1000.83-1.20+0.83from 1.73 · −5.5% CLV | 3-1 | LOST |
| Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersBaseball · MLB | first seen 13m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.96-10424/250.96-1.04+0.96derived | — | 2-3 | WON |
| Always Ready vs Real PotosiFootball · Primera division | first seen 8m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.20 · −11.1% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Santiago Wanderers vs Puerto MonttFootball · Serie B | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.88-11422/250.88-1.14+0.88from 2.03 · +8.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| BATE Borisov vs VitebskFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 2.80+1809/51.80+1.80-0.56from 2.35 · −16.1% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| Academico Viseu vs Santa ClaraFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.80+1809/51.80+1.80-0.56from 2.90 · +3.6% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Bangor vs CliftonvilleFootball · Premier League | first seen 55m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.80 · 0.0% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
| Hoek vs KoninklijkeFootball · Division 2 | first seen 24m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.55 · +1.3% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Navbahor vs Bunyodkor TashkentFootball · Superleague | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20from 1.35 · +12.5% CLV | 4-3 | WON |
| Peninsula Power vs Brisbane CityFootball · Queensland. National Premier League | first seen 6h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.60 · 0.0% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Weston Bears vs Adamstown RosebudFootball · North New South Wales. National Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.35 · 0.0% CLV | 4-2 | WON |
| Brindabella Blues vs Tuggeranong UnitedFootball · Capital Territory. National Premier League | first seen 21m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.37 · +3.0% CLV | 0-6 | WON |
| Pachuca vs PueblaFootball · Liga MX | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.55 · 0.0% CLV | 2-3 | LOST |
| NSI Runavik vs SkalaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.42 · +5.2% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Artis Brno vs Sigma OlomoucFootball · Superleague | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72from 1.73 · +0.6% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Deportivo Moron vs AcassusoFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.47 · −2.0% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Asane vs KongsvingerFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.42-23821/500.42-2.38+0.42from 1.45 · +2.1% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Skopje vs Struga Trim-LumFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.48-20812/250.48-2.08+0.48from 1.55 · +4.7% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Coquimbo Unido vs La SerenaFootball · Serie A | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.48 · −4.5% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju UnitedFootball · Superleague | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.72 · −7.0% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
| Ljungskile vs OddevoldFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.02+10251/501.02+1.02-0.98from 2.35 · +16.3% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Palestino vs HuachipatoFootball · Serie A | first seen 23m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.58-17229/500.58-1.72+0.58from 1.58 · 0.0% CLV | 5-1 | WON |
| Decic Tuzi vs BokeljFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.40 · −9.7% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Hacken vs HalmstadsFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32from 1.30 · −1.5% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
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