Dandenong Thunder vs Oakleigh Cannons
Football · Victoria.National Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived
- Feed close
- 1.06-16673/500.06-16.67+0.06from 1.10 · +3.8% CLV
- Score
- 0-5
· first seen 4m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7154
7149 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−517.5u
over 7149u staked
Yield
−7.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2565 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2584 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 14 | 85.7%60%–96% | −5.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+6pp
19
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3970 | 58.5% | −345.7u |
| Double chance | 3184 | 67.8% | −171.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7154 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dandenong Thunder vs Oakleigh CannonsFootball · Victoria.National Premier League | first seen 4m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.06-16673/500.06-16.67+0.06from 1.10 · +3.8% CLV | 0-5 | WON |
| Skycity Stampede vs Dunedin ThunderIce Hockey · NZIHL. Final. Best of 3 | first seen 55m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92derived | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43from 1.55 · +8.4% CLV | 6-2 | WON |
| Canberra White Eagles vs Monaro PanthersFootball · Capital Territory. National Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.11-90911/1000.11-9.09+0.11from 1.12 · +0.9% CLV | 0-5 | WON |
| Tuggeranong United vs Canberra JuventusFootball · Capital Territory. National Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.87 · +1.1% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Canberra Croatia vs Belconnen UnitedFootball · Capital Territory. National Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.10-10001/100.10-10.00+0.10from 1.11 · +0.9% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Canberra Olympic vs Brindabella BluesFootball · Capital Territory. National Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.18-5569/500.18-5.56+0.18from 1.19 · +0.8% CLV | 5-4 | WON |
| Soles de Mexicali vs Mineros de ZacatecasBasketball · LNBP | first seen 7h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 78-71 | WON |
| Oriente Petrolero vs San Antonio Bulo BuloFootball · Primera division | first seen 25m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 1.42-23821/500.42-2.38+0.42from 1.42 · 0.0% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Penybont vs Llandudno TownFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.72 · +7.5% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Cardiff Metropolitan vs The New SaintsFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.22-45511/500.22-4.55+0.22from 1.32 · +8.2% CLV | 0-5 | WON |
| Vllaznia Shkoder vs Skenderbeu KorceFootball · Superleague | first seen 55m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.42 · −8.4% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Bari vs CaveseFootball · Serie C. Group C | first seen 55m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.32 · −12.0% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Holywell Town vs Barry TownFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32from 1.42 · +7.6% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Jaguares Cordoba vs Boyaca ChicoFootball · Serie A | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.68-14717/250.68-1.47+0.68from 1.80 · +7.1% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Atletico San Telmo vs Deportivo MoronFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 25m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 2.35+13527/201.35+1.35-0.74from 2.45 · +4.3% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| LDU Portoviejo vs 22 de JulioFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37from 1.58 · +15.3% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Marseille vs StrasbourgFootball · Ligue 1. Season 26/27 | first seen 40m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72from 1.75 · +1.7% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Emmen vs Jong AZ AlkmaarFootball · Division 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 2.20 · +18.9% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta BravesBaseball · MLB | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Erzurumspor BB vs GalatasarayFootball · Superleague | first seen 25m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.47 · −3.9% CLV | 0-4 | WON |
| Helmond Sport vs WaalwijkFootball · Division 1 | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.83 · +7.6% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Den Bosch vs FC EindhovenFootball · Division 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 2.05 · +2.5% CLV | 5-2 | WON |
| Arsenal vs Coventry CityFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 55m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.22-45511/500.22-4.55+0.22from 1.20 · −1.6% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Union Brescia vs CarpiFootball · Serie C. Group A | first seen 55m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.30 · −3.7% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Colwyn Bay vs Airbus UKFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.50 · −14.3% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
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