Young Boys vs Vaduz
Football · Superleague
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived
- Feed close
- 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.28 · −1.5% CLV
- Score
- 4-2
· first seen 4h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7154
7149 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−517.5u
over 7149u staked
Yield
−7.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2565 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2584 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 14 | 85.7%60%–96% | −5.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+6pp
19
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3970 | 58.5% | −345.7u |
| Double chance | 3184 | 67.8% | −171.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7154 picks with a captured kickoff.
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· first seen 52m before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young Boys vs VaduzFootball · Superleague | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.28 · −1.5% CLV | 4-2 | WON |
| Shenzhen Juniors vs Nanjing CityFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.75 · −7.9% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Oddevold vs HelsingborgFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.93-10893/1000.93-1.08+0.93from 1.90 · −1.6% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Baranovichi vs Dynamo BrestFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.80 · +9.1% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Jeonnam Dragons vs HwaseongFootball · K League 2 | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82from 1.90 · +4.4% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Red DiamondsFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.82 · −1.6% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Doosan Bears vs Lotte GiantsBaseball · KBO | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | — | 3-1 | LOST |
| Go Ahead Eagles vs ADO Den HaagFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.70 · +3.0% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Hanwha Eagles vs LG TwinsBaseball · KBO | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | — | 3-12 | LOST |
| Chester vs Spalding UnitedFootball · National league. North | first seen 50m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.60 · +3.2% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Ayacucho vs Deportivo BinacionalFootball · Division 2 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.16-6254/250.16-6.25+0.16from 1.16 · 0.0% CLV | 7-1 | WON |
| Harju Laagri vs Nomme KaljuFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52from 1.45 · −4.6% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| Skycity Stampede vs Dunedin ThunderIce Hockey · NZIHL. Final. Best of 3 | first seen 12h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92derived | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47from 1.52 · +3.4% CLV | 6-2 | WON |
| Fortuna Sittard vs AZ AlkmaarFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.60 · +3.2% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| Maidenhead United vs FarnboroughFootball · National League. South | first seen 50m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.85 · +5.7% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| South Melbourne vs Heidelberg UnitedFootball · Victoria.National Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.60 · +2.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Heerenveen vs PEC ZwolleFootball · Premier League | first seen 3m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.55 · +6.9% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| Yomiuri Giants vs Hiroshima Toyo CarpBaseball · NPB | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | — | 2-3 | LOST |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah vs AbhaFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.20 · +0.8% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Fastav Zlin vs Slovan LiberecFootball · Superleague | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.77-13077/1000.77-1.30+0.77from 1.85 · +4.5% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Montrose vs East KilbrideFootball · League 1 | first seen 50m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.60 · −3.0% CLV | 3-0 | LOST |
| Macclesfield vs Brackley TownFootball · National league. North | first seen 50m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.82 · +10.3% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Dorking Wanderers vs Maidstone UnitedFootball · National League. South | first seen 50m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 2.05+10521/201.05+1.05-0.95from 2.45 · +19.5% CLV | 2-3 | LOST |
| South Shields vs Merthyr TownFootball · National league. North | first seen 50m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.45 · +7.4% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix RisingFootball · USL | first seen 52m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.87 · +6.9% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
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