Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived
- Feed close
- 1.38-26319/500.38-2.63+0.38from 1.40 · +1.4% CLV
- Score
- 4-2
· first seen 3h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7154
7149 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−517.5u
over 7149u staked
Yield
−7.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2565 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2584 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 14 | 85.7%60%–96% | −5.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+6pp
19
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3970 | 58.5% | −345.7u |
| Double chance | 3184 | 67.8% | −171.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7154 picks with a captured kickoff.
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Football · Division 2
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stjarnan vs Thor AkureyriFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.38-26319/500.38-2.63+0.38from 1.40 · +1.4% CLV | 4-2 | WON |
| Castellon vs SabadellFootball · Segunda Division | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.52 · −10.6% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Pisa vs PadovaFootball · Serie B | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.77-13077/1000.77-1.30+0.77from 1.78 · +0.6% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Al Ahly Cairo vs ENPPIFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.38 · +2.2% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Zilina vs KomarnoFootball · Superleague | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72from 1.73 · +0.6% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Keflavik vs IB VestmannaeyjarFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.93-10893/1000.93-1.08+0.93from 1.97 · +2.1% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Zalgiris Vilnius vs Dziugas TelsiaiFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37from 1.60 · +16.8% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Gzira United vs VallettaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.67 · +1.2% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
| Trabzonspor vs Istanbul BasaksehirFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 2.13 · +12.1% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Hohenems vs RothisFootball · Regional League. West | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27from 1.22 · −3.9% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Atletico Madrid vs VillarrealFootball · Primera Division. Season 26/27 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.85 · +2.8% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Le Havre vs MonacoFootball · Ligue 1. Season 26/27 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.97-10397/1000.97-1.03+0.97from 1.92 · −2.5% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Loznica vs Bor 1919Football · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.60 · +6.7% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Trencin vs Spartak TrnavaFootball · Superleague | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.87-11587/1000.87-1.15+0.87from 1.75 · −6.4% CLV | 0-4 | WON |
| Cambuur vs FeyenoordFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20from 1.30 · +8.3% CLV | 2-5 | WON |
| Hammarby vs GAISFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.35 · −3.6% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Hammarby Talang vs PiteaFootball · Division 2. North | first seen 51m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.14-7147/500.14-7.14+0.14from 1.14 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Paide Linnameeskond vs Nomme UnitedFootball · Superleague | first seen 51m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.40 · −6.7% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Swift Hesperange vs HostertFootball · Division Nationale | first seen 51m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.55 · 0.0% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| HB Torshavn vs 07 VesturFootball · Premier League | first seen 51m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.35 · +3.8% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Manchester City vs BournemouthFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 49m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47from 1.50 · +2.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Dynamos vs Chicken InnFootball · Premier League | first seen 49m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.98-10249/500.98-1.02+0.98from 1.98 · 0.0% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| AGF Aarhus vs OdenseFootball · Superleague | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.87-11587/1000.87-1.15+0.87from 1.77 · −5.3% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Dynamo Moscow vs Rodina MoscowFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 4m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.38-26319/500.38-2.63+0.38from 1.35 · −2.2% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| ROHDA Raalte vs De TreffersFootball · Division 2 | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.22-45511/500.22-4.55+0.22from 1.22 · 0.0% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
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