Differdange vs Racing Luxembourg
Football · Division Nationale
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived
- Feed close
- 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.65 · +1.2% CLV
- Score
- 3-0
· first seen 51m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7154
7149 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−517.5u
over 7149u staked
Yield
−7.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2565 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2584 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 14 | 85.7%60%–96% | −5.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+6pp
19
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3970 | 58.5% | −345.7u |
| Double chance | 3184 | 67.8% | −171.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7154 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Differdange vs Racing LuxembourgFootball · Division Nationale | first seen 51m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.65 · +1.2% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Shanghai Port vs Qingdao ManateeFootball · Superleague | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.30 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Chiba Lotte Marines vs Hokkaido Nippon-Nam FightersBaseball · NPB | first seen 52m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | — | 3-2 | LOST |
| Los Angeles Sparks (w) vs Connecticut Sun (w)Basketball · WNBA | first seen 48m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | — | 77-68 | WON |
| Deportivo Garcilaso vs CuscoFootball · Premier League | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 2.60+1608/51.60+1.60-0.63from 2.70 · +3.8% CLV | 4-1 | LOST |
| Tristan Suarez vs AgropecuarioFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.72 · +1.2% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Ludogorets Razgrad vs Slavia SofiaFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.35 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Artis Brno vs Sparta PragueFootball · Superleague | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.37 · +1.5% CLV | 0-4 | WON |
| Dungannon Swifts vs BangorFootball · Premier League | first seen 50m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.63 · +1.9% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Radcliffe vs MorecambeFootball · National league. North | first seen 50m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 2.03 · +6.8% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Super Nova vs BFC DaugavpilsFootball · Virsliga | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.95 · +11.4% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Valmiera vs MarupesFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.19 · −4.8% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Daegu vs Busan I'ParkFootball · K League 2 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.92 · +1.1% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Bragantino vs GremioFootball · Serie A | first seen 6m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.57-17557/1000.57-1.75+0.57from 1.67 · +6.4% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Atenas San Carlos vs Sportivo HuracanFootball · Segunda Division | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.85 · +32.6% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| PAOK vs LevadiakosFootball · Superleague 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37from 1.40 · +2.2% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Chicago Red Stars (w) vs Racing Louisville (w)Football · Women. NWSL | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.70 · 0.0% CLV | 3-2 | LOST |
| Catania vs Inter Milan U23Football · Serie C. Group C | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52from 1.53 · +0.7% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Vitoria Guimaraes vs Nacional MadeiraFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.58-17229/500.58-1.72+0.58from 1.65 · +4.4% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| PSV vs GroningenFootball · Premier League | first seen 19m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.33 · +6.4% CLV | 5-1 | WON |
| Seoul E-Land vs Paju FrontierFootball · K League 2 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52from 1.45 · −4.6% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Chunichi Dragons vs Tokyo Yakult SwallowsBaseball · NPB | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.96-10424/250.96-1.04+0.96derived | — | 3-2 | LOST |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati RedsBaseball · MLB | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.89-11289/1000.89-1.12+0.89derived | — | 5-3 | WON |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansBaseball · MLB | first seen 5h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | — | 2-7 | WON |
| Chaco For Ever vs Los AndesFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 3m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.15 · 0.0% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
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