Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived
- Feed close
- 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.68 · −4.0% CLV
- Score
- 2-0
· first seen 3m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7154
7149 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−517.5u
over 7149u staked
Yield
−7.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2565 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2584 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 14 | 85.7%60%–96% | −5.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+6pp
19
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3970 | 58.5% | −345.7u |
| Double chance | 3184 | 67.8% | −171.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7154 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente vs Casa PiaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.68 · −4.0% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Fulham vs ChelseaFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 52m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 1.83 · −8.5% CLV | 2-3 | WON |
| Salernitana vs SorrentoFootball · Serie C. Group C | first seen 52m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.55 · +6.9% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda KardzhaliFootball · League 1 | first seen 7m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.35 · +9.3% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Osasuna vs LevanteFootball · Primera Division. Season 26/27 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.80 · −5.3% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Torpedo-BelAZ vs Dnepr MogilevFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.83-12083/1000.83-1.20+0.83from 1.70 · −7.1% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Brondby vs SilkeborgFootball · Superleague | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.42 · −2.1% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Norrkoping vs FalkenbergsFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52from 1.53 · +0.7% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Botosani vs Csikszereda Miercurea CiucFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.62 · −4.7% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Smederevo 1924 vs TeleoptikFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.50 · −3.2% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Spokane Velocity vs Greenville Triumph SCFootball · USL. League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.75 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Olympiacos Piraeus vs Atromitos AthensFootball · Superleague 1 | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23from 1.25 · +1.6% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Fleetwood Town vs GillinghamFootball · League 2 | first seen 50m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.82 · −1.6% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Vasas vs Puskas AcademyFootball · National League | first seen 20m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.12 · −1.4% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Palermo vs Juve StabiaFootball · Serie B | first seen 6m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47from 1.55 · +5.4% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| La Serena vs CobresalFootball · Serie A | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47from 1.62 · +10.2% CLV | 3-3 | LOST |
| AV Alta vs NaplesFootball · USL. League 1 | first seen 52m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 1.98 · −1.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| FAS vs Aguila San MiguelFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 2.07+107107/1001.07+1.07-0.93from 2.08 · +0.5% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Dinamo Bucuresti vs Universitatea ClujFootball · League 1 | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.80 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Athletic Bilbao vs SevillaFootball · Primera Division. Season 26/27 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.72 · −1.7% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
| Queen of South vs Alloa AthleticFootball · League 1 | first seen 50m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 2.50+1503/21.50+1.50-0.67from 2.50 · 0.0% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| KA Akureyri vs KR ReykjavikFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.52 · −6.2% CLV | 3-5 | WON |
| Vozdovac vs MetalacFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.63 · −11.9% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Kisvarda vs Debreceni VSCFootball · National League | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 2.13+113113/1001.13+1.13-0.88from 2.08 · −2.3% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Zarzis vs Olympique BejaFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.57-17557/1000.57-1.75+0.57from 1.65 · +5.1% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
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