Pafos vs Dinamo Tirana
Football · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived
- Feed close
- 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.33 · +2.3% CLV
- Score
- 4-2
· first seen 6h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7154
7149 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−517.5u
over 7149u staked
Yield
−7.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2565 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2584 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 14 | 85.7%60%–96% | −5.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+6pp
19
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3970 | 58.5% | −345.7u |
| Double chance | 3184 | 67.8% | −171.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7154 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6h before
Football · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6h before
Football · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6h before
Baseball · MLB
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Baseball · NPB
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Primera Division. Season 26/27
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 52m before
Baseball · MLB
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 52m before
Baseball · MLB
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Baseball · MLB
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Baseball · MLB
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Baseball · MLB
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Baseball · MLB
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Baseball · MLB
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Primera division
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Serie A
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 45m before
Baseball · MLB
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Baseball · MLB
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Baseball · MLB
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Baseball · MLB
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Baseball · MLB
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos vs Dinamo TiranaFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 6h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.33 · +2.3% CLV | 4-2 | WON |
| Monaco vs Gornik ZabrzeFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 6h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.40 · +3.7% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Freiburg vs MotherwellFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 6h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.22 · +2.5% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Miami Marlins vs Boston Red SoxBaseball · MLB | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.96-10424/250.96-1.04+0.96derived | — | 4-0 | LOST |
| Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs Yomiuri GiantsBaseball · NPB | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | — | 2-9 | WON |
| Real Madrid vs Real SociedadFootball · Primera Division. Season 26/27 | first seen 52m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.40 · +17.6% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Athletics vs Minnesota TwinsBaseball · MLB | first seen 52m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.89-11289/1000.89-1.12+0.89derived | — | 7-4 | LOST |
| Washington Nationals vs Colorado RockiesBaseball · MLB | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | — | 1-13 | LOST |
| Chicago White Sox vs Texas RangersBaseball · MLB | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | — | 10-4 | LOST |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City RoyalsBaseball · MLB | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.89-11289/1000.89-1.12+0.89derived | — | 3-0 | LOST |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles DodgersBaseball · MLB | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.89-11289/1000.89-1.12+0.89derived | — | 6-5 | LOST |
| New York Mets vs Milwaukee BrewersBaseball · MLB | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | — | 1-8 | WON |
| New York Yankees vs Houston AstrosBaseball · MLB | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | — | 9-3 | WON |
| Real Potosi vs Real TomayapoFootball · Primera division | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | 9.00+8008/18.00+8.00-0.13from 8.50 · −5.6% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Haugesund vs EgersundsFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.50 · 0.0% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Boyaca Chico vs Fortaleza ZipaquiraFootball · Serie A | first seen 45m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.75 · +7.8% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia PhilliesBaseball · MLB | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | — | 0-6 | WON |
| San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh PiratesBaseball · MLB | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland GuardiansBaseball · MLB | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | — | 3-4 | WON |
| San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati RedsBaseball · MLB | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | — | 9-10 | LOST |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago CubsBaseball · MLB | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | — | 2-0 | LOST |
| Stromsgodset vs HoddFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.25 · +5.0% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Mamelodi Sundowns vs AmaZuluFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32from 1.23 · −6.8% CLV | 5-2 | WON |
| Richards Bay vs Kaizer ChiefsFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.87-11587/1000.87-1.15+0.87from 2.00 · +7.0% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Rapid Vienna vs HeartsFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.60 · +6.7% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.