Toluca vs Juarez
Football · Liga MX
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived
- Feed close
- 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.35 · 0.0% CLV
- Score
- 4-0
· first seen 2m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7153
7148 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−516.5u
over 7148u staked
Yield
−7.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2564 | 60.1%58%–62% | −6.0pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2584 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 14 | 85.7%60%–96% | −5.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+10pp
18
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3969 | 58.5% | −344.7u |
| Double chance | 3184 | 67.8% | −171.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7153 picks with a captured kickoff.
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· first seen 32m before
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· first seen 32m before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca vs JuarezFootball · Liga MX | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.35 · 0.0% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati RedsBaseball · MLB | first seen 26h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | — | 5-7 | LOST |
| Fuerza Regia vs Abejas de LeonBasketball · LNBP | first seen 59m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | — | 75-76 | LOST |
| Cerro Largo vs Liverpool MontevideoFootball · Premier League | first seen 24h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 3.45+24549/202.45+2.45-0.41from 3.75 · +8.7% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Mirassol vs Palmeiras SPFootball · Serie A | first seen 14m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 2.10+11011/101.10+1.10-0.91from 2.02 · −3.8% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico GuemesFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 14m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.55 · +3.3% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Vila Nova vs Ceara FortalezaFootball · Serie B | first seen 14m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.80 · +5.9% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Seattle Storm (w) vs Los Angeles Sparks (w)Basketball · WNBA | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 74-90 | LOST |
| CRB vs CriciumaFootball · Serie B | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 2.20+1206/51.20+1.20-0.83from 2.15 · −2.3% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Sport Boys vs Sporting CristalFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 2.40+1407/51.40+1.40-0.71from 2.30 · −4.2% CLV | 4:1 | WON |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesBaseball · MLB | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | — | 2-5 | WON |
| Athletics vs Baltimore OriolesBaseball · MLB | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | — | 5-8 | WON |
| Argentinos Juniors vs AldosiviFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.40 · +3.7% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Radnik Bijeljina vs Borac Banja LukaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37from 1.30 · −5.1% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| New York Mets vs Houston AstrosBaseball · MLB | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00derived | — | 3-6 | WON |
| Pisa vs CatanzaroFootball · Serie B | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.80 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Pergolettese vs Union BresciaFootball · Serie C. Group A | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.42-23821/500.42-2.38+0.42from 1.45 · +2.1% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| America Mineiro vs Ponte PretaFootball · Serie B | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.09-11119/1000.09-11.11+0.09from 1.09 · 0.0% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Universidad Concepcion vs Universidad ChileFootball · Serie A | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.60 · −1.2% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Flamengo RJ vs Botafogo RJFootball · Serie A | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28from 1.40 · +9.4% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Deportivo Moron vs Atletico San MiguelFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72from 1.70 · −1.2% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Lazio vs GenoaFootball · Serie A. Season 26/27 | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.35+13527/201.35+1.35-0.74from 2.12 · −9.8% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Cagliari vs Inter MilanFootball · Serie A. Season 26/27 | first seen 47m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.40 · 0.0% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Samsunspor vs FenerbahceFootball · Superleague | first seen 32m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.57-17557/1000.57-1.75+0.57from 1.60 · +1.9% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| Istanbul Basaksehir vs Kasimpasa SKFootball · Superleague | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.65 · +3.1% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
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