Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived
- Feed close
- 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 1.70 · −4.5% CLV
- Score
- 1-0
· first seen 1h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7153
7148 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−516.5u
over 7148u staked
Yield
−7.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1481 | 55.4%53%–58% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2564 | 60.1%58%–62% | −6.0pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2584 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 14 | 85.7%60%–96% | −5.0pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+10pp
18
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3969 | 58.5% | −344.7u |
| Double chance | 3184 | 67.8% | −171.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7153 picks with a captured kickoff.
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· first seen 1h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga vs Vitoria GuimaraesFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 1.70 · −4.5% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| HNK Gorica vs RijekaFootball · Premier League | first seen 59m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.58-17229/500.58-1.72+0.58from 1.65 · +4.4% CLV | 4:0 | LOST |
| Aston Villa vs ArsenalFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 59m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.53 · +2.0% CLV | 0:1 | WON |
| Dijon vs Saint EtienneFootball · Ligue 2 | first seen 44m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67from 1.80 · +7.8% CLV | 2:3 | WON |
| Atalanta vs BolognaFootball · Serie A. Season 26/27 | first seen 44m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.83-12083/1000.83-1.20+0.83from 1.90 · +3.8% CLV | 1:0 | WON |
| Besiktas vs Corum BelediyesporFootball · Superleague | first seen 29m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.43 · +2.1% CLV | 6-2 | WON |
| Racing Montevideo vs Albion MontevideoFootball · Premier League | first seen 29m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.80 · +5.9% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Amedspor vs TrabzonsporFootball · Superleague | first seen 29m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 2.08+10827/251.08+1.08-0.93from 1.97 · −5.3% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Arda Kardzhali vs Botev VratsaFootball · League 1 | first seen 14m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.52 · −1.9% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| KI Klaksvik vs EB/StreymurFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.12-8333/250.12-8.33+0.12from 1.18 · +5.4% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Osasuna vs GetafeFootball · Primera Division. Season 26/27 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.25 · +4.7% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Lecce vs RomaFootball · Serie A. Season 26/27 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.45 · 0.0% CLV | 0-4 | WON |
| Southport vs HerefordFootball · National league. North | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 2.45+14529/201.45+1.45-0.69from 2.60 · +6.1% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Forest Green Rovers vs AltrinchamFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.53 · −6.1% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Carlisle United vs Scunthorpe UnitedFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.65 · +3.1% CLV | 4-2 | WON |
| FC Liepaja vs FC RigaFootball · Virsliga | first seen 24m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.35 · 0.0% CLV | 0:1 | WON |
| Worthing vs Boreham WoodFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.60 · +14.3% CLV | 2-3 | WON |
| Harrogate Town vs GatesheadFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.55 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Dagenham and Redbridge vs Slough TownFootball · National League. South | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.40 · 0.0% CLV | 1:0 | WON |
| Folkestone Invicta vs Hemel Hempstead TownFootball · National League. South | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.93 · +1.6% CLV | 2:0 | WON |
| Tonbridge Angels vs Walton & HershamFootball · National League. South | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.60 · 0.0% CLV | 5:1 | WON |
| South Shields vs Spalding UnitedFootball · National league. North | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.40 · −9.7% CLV | 1:1 | LOST |
| Spennymoor Town vs Hednesford TownFootball · National league. North | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.17+117117/1001.17+1.17-0.85from 2.55 · +17.5% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Woking vs Southend UnitedFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 2.03+103103/1001.03+1.03-0.97from 2.00 · −1.5% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Ammanford vs Cardiff MetropolitanFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.50 · −3.2% CLV | 0-5 | WON |
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