Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived
- Feed close
- 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.80 · 0.0% CLV
- Score
- 0-4
· first seen 42m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6222
6218 graded · 4 void
Win rate
63.3%
95% CI 62%–65%
Profit
−421.6u
over 6218u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 37 | 43.2%29%–59% | −1.7pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1201 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2295 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2325 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 350 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 9 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3115
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±108.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 130 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3250 | 58.9% | −278.6u |
| Double chance | 2972 | 68.2% | −143.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1094 | 65.5% | −58.8u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 307 | 62.5% | +42.9u |
| League 2 | 225 | 58.7% | −33.7u |
| Division 1 | 171 | 59.6% | −24.9u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 135 | 61.5% | −11.2u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 95 | 52.6% | −20.5u |
| National league | 87 | 54.0% | −18.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6222 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 42m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 42m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 42m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 42m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 51m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 57m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 42m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 42m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 40m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 40m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 40m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 40m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell vs AberdeenFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.80 · 0.0% CLV | 0-4 | LOST |
| Connahs Quay vs Airbus UKFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.48-20812/250.48-2.08+0.48from 1.45 · −2.0% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Crusaders vs Dungannon SwiftsFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.77-13077/1000.77-1.30+0.77from 1.90 · +7.3% CLV | 3-0 | LOST |
| Holywell Town vs Colwyn BayFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.30 · +4.0% CLV | 0-5 | WON |
| Ajax vs Willem IIFootball · Premier League | first seen 51m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.11-90911/1000.11-9.09+0.11from 1.12 · +0.9% CLV | 5-1 | WON |
| Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Petah TikvaFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.55 · 0.0% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Asyut Petroleum vs FutureFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Racing United vs Arnett GardensFootball · Premier League | first seen 57m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 3-2 | WON |
| Hibernian vs KilmarnockFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.48 · +5.7% CLV | 0:1 | LOST |
| Barry Town vs AmmanfordFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.12-8333/250.12-8.33+0.12from 1.15 · +2.7% CLV | 2:2 | LOST |
| Universidad Catolica Quito vs OrenseFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43from 1.43 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Molynes United FC vs Treasure BeachFootball · Premier League | first seen 1m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 3-2 | WON |
| Vikingur Reykjavik vs KeflavikFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28from 1.20 · −6.3% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Waterford vs Derry CityFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Sligo Rovers vs GalwayFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | X2Double Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 1-3 | WON |
| FC Dundalk vs Saint Patrick's AthleticFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 0-4 | WON |
| Shelbourne vs Drogheda UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi HaifaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 0-4 | WON |
| Ceramika Cleopatra vs National BankFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Al Masry vs Al Ittihad AlexandriaFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 5.00 · +163.2% CLV | 1:1 | WON |
| Al Ahly Cairo vs Abu Qair SemadFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20from 1.22 · +1.7% CLV | 2:0 | WON |
| Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel JerusalemFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2:0 | LOST |
| Wadi Degla vs Al MokawloonFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0:2 | LOST |
| Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi NetanyaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.62 · −0.6% CLV | 2-0 | LOST |
| Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei SakhninFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 3-1 | WON |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.