Briton Ferry vs Trefelin
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived
- Feed close
- 1.48-20812/250.48-2.08+0.48from 1.55 · +4.7% CLV
- Score
- 1-1
· first seen 39m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6222
6218 graded · 4 void
Win rate
63.3%
95% CI 62%–65%
Profit
−421.6u
over 6218u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 37 | 43.2%29%–59% | −1.7pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1201 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2295 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2325 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 350 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 9 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3115
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±108.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 130 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3250 | 58.9% | −278.6u |
| Double chance | 2972 | 68.2% | −143.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1094 | 65.5% | −58.8u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 307 | 62.5% | +42.9u |
| League 2 | 225 | 58.7% | −33.7u |
| Division 1 | 171 | 59.6% | −24.9u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 135 | 61.5% | −11.2u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 95 | 52.6% | −20.5u |
| National league | 87 | 54.0% | −18.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6222 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 39m before
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1XDouble Chance
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1XDouble Chance
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AwayMatch Winner
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HomeMatch Winner
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1XDouble Chance
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HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 24m before
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HomeMatch Winner
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X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 56m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 56m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 44m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 29m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 33m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 33m before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Briton Ferry vs TrefelinFootball · Premier League | first seen 39m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.48-20812/250.48-2.08+0.48from 1.55 · +4.7% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Colwyn Bay vs Barry TownFootball · Premier League | first seen 39m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 5-2 | WON |
| Derry City vs GalwayFootball · Premier League | first seen 39m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Gent vs Standard LiegeFootball · Premier League | first seen 39m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.83-12083/1000.83-1.20+0.83from 1.80 · −1.6% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Connahs Quay vs Cardiff MetropolitanFootball · Premier League | first seen 39m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.63 · +12.4% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Ammanford vs PenybontFootball · Premier League | first seen 39m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.15-6673/200.15-6.67+0.15from 1.17 · +1.7% CLV | 1-5 | WON |
| Haverfordwest vs Holywell TownFootball · Premier League | first seen 39m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.30 · +4.0% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| FC Dundalk vs ShelbourneFootball · Premier League | first seen 39m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 2-3 | LOST |
| Caernarfon vs Cambrian UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 39m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.40 · +3.7% CLV | 9-1 | WON |
| Hamrun Spartans vs MarsaxlokkFootball · Premier League | first seen 24m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 3.40+24012/52.40+2.40-0.42from 3.35 · −1.5% CLV | 4-1 | LOST |
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Celik ZenicaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.95-10519/200.95-1.05+0.95from 1.78 · −8.7% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Rudes vs Slaven BelupoFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| KI Klaksvik vs SkalaFootball · Premier League | first seen 56m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.12-8333/250.12-8.33+0.12from 1.17 · +4.5% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo OsakaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1:1 | WON |
| Al Wehdat vs RamthaFootball · Premier League | first seen 56m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.57-17557/1000.57-1.75+0.57from 1.43 · −8.9% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Zabbar St. Patrick vs BirkirkaraFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Noah vs VanFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.03-33333/1000.03-33.33+0.03from 1.04 · +1.0% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Aktobe vs Ulytau ZhezkazganFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.34-29417/500.34-2.94+0.34from 1.50 · +11.9% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Kyzyl-Zhar vs KaisarFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Groningen vs PEC ZwolleFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.58 · +1.9% CLV | 3:0 | WON |
| Belschina Bobruisk vs MinskFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 2-0 | LOST |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Petah TikvaFootball · Premier League | first seen 44m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.37 · +3.0% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Polissya Zhytomyr vs KryvbasFootball · Premier League | first seen 29m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27from 1.30 · +2.4% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Transport United vs RTCFootball · Premier League | first seen 33m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Zhetysu vs Kaspiy AktauFootball · Premier League | first seen 33m before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
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