Sporting Lisbon vs Arouca
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived
- Feed close
- 1.15-6673/200.15-6.67+0.15from 1.20 · +4.3% CLV
- Score
- 2-2
· first seen 40m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6222
6218 graded · 4 void
Win rate
63.3%
95% CI 62%–65%
Profit
−421.6u
over 6218u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 37 | 43.2%29%–59% | −1.7pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1201 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2295 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2325 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 350 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 9 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3115
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±108.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 130 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3250 | 58.9% | −278.6u |
| Double chance | 2972 | 68.2% | −143.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1094 | 65.5% | −58.8u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 307 | 62.5% | +42.9u |
| League 2 | 225 | 58.7% | −33.7u |
| Division 1 | 171 | 59.6% | −24.9u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 135 | 61.5% | −11.2u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 95 | 52.6% | −20.5u |
| National league | 87 | 54.0% | −18.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6222 picks with a captured kickoff.
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· first seen 18m before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lisbon vs AroucaFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.15-6673/200.15-6.67+0.15from 1.20 · +4.3% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Willem II vs Fortuna SittardFootball · Premier League | first seen 10m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.45 · −3.9% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Sligo Rovers vs Saint Patrick's AthleticFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.38 · +2.2% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Anderlecht vs Zulte WaregemFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 4.60+36018/53.60+3.60-0.28from 4.50 · −2.2% CLV | 3-0 | LOST |
| FC Siauliai vs Kauno ZalgirisFootball · Premier League | first seen 12m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.16-6254/250.16-6.25+0.16from 1.25 · +7.8% CLV | 0:2 | WON |
| Kruger United vs StellenboschFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Istra 1961 vs HNK GoricaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.83 · −1.1% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Ajax vs ExcelsiorFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23from 1.20 · −2.4% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Cajamarca vs CuscoFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-2 | WON |
| Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Deportivo RiestraFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 2.35+13527/201.35+1.35-0.74from 2.10 · −10.6% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel HaifaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.62 · −1.8% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Gimnasia La Plata vs BanfieldFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.80 · +9.1% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Alverca vs Rio AveFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.93 · +10.3% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Maccabi Netanya vs Maccabi Tel AvivFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 5.00 · +233.3% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Maccabi Haifa vs Ironi TiberiasFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.30 · 0.0% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Coleraine vs Limavady UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.14-7147/500.14-7.14+0.14from 1.15 · +0.9% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Dinamo Minsk vs BATE BorisovFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.45 · +3.6% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Kilmarnock vs HeartsFootball · Premier League | first seen 48m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.68-14717/250.68-1.47+0.68from 1.62 · −3.6% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Sparta Rotterdam vs HeerenveenFootball · Premier League | first seen 48m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0-4 | LOST |
| Transinvest vs Zalgiris VilniusFootball · Premier League | first seen 33m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Ramat GanFootball · Premier League | first seen 33m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Zrinjski Mostar vs Velez MostarFootball · Premier League | first seen 33m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27from 1.25 · −1.6% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| The New Saints vs Llandudno TownFootball · Premier League | first seen 33m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.05-20001/200.05-20.00+0.05from 1.17 · +11.4% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel JerusalemFootball · Premier League | first seen 33m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 2.90+19019/101.90+1.90-0.53from 2.65 · −8.6% CLV | 2-4 | LOST |
| Charleroi vs Cercle BruggeFootball · Premier League | first seen 18m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.75 · +8.0% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
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