Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 2-1
· first seen 2h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3947
3946 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−215.0u
over 3946u staked
Yield
−5.4%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L3
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 734 | 55.0%51%–59% | −0.9pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1490 | 62.3%60%–65% | −4.0pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1506 | 70.6%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 202 | 70.8%64%–77% | −9.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
843
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.6u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2001 | 68.5% | −86.1u |
| Match winner | 1946 | 60.4% | −128.9u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 732 | 67.2% | −21.0u |
| Superleague | 331 | 60.7% | −41.9u |
| League 1 | 321 | 67.3% | −10.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 190 | 59.5% | +17.2u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 102 | 65.7% | −4.6u |
| Serie B | 97 | 60.8% | −9.8u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 74 | 64.9% | −5.2u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3947 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 47m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 32m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 39m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 46m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 31m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 31m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 31m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 31m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 31m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 31m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 31m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 31m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 31m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 31m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano OkayamaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-PulseFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Universitario Lima vs Sporting CristalFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Isidro Metapan vs Aguila San MiguelFootball · Premier League | first seen 47m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Independiente Rivadavia vs Estudiantes Rio CuartoFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.45 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Comerciantes Unidos vs CuscoFootball · Premier League | first seen 39m before | X2Double Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 3-1 | LOST |
| Estoril vs FamalicaoFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Shamrock Rovers vs FC DundalkFootball · Premier League | first seen 46m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.65 · −13.2% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Cambrian United vs Briton FerryFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Ammanford vs Colwyn BayFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20from 1.33 · +10.8% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Cliftonville vs CrusadersFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.50 · +3.4% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Derry City vs Sligo RoversFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.40 · +5.3% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Brugge vs KortrijkFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.18-5569/500.18-5.56+0.18from 1.25 · +5.9% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| The New Saints vs HaverfordwestFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.14-7147/500.14-7.14+0.14from 1.28 · +12.3% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Airbus UK vs Cardiff MetropolitanFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | X2Double Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Holywell Town vs Connahs QuayFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28from 1.37 · +7.0% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Flint Town United vs Barry TownFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 2.35+13527/201.35+1.35-0.74from 2.30 · −2.1% CLV | 2-3 | WON |
| Trefelin vs Llandudno TownFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 0-4 | LOST |
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs BSK Banja LukaFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Cambuur vs ExcelsiorFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 0-4 | LOST |
| Sport Huancayo vs Los ChancasFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| 07 Vestur vs EB/StreymurFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 3-2 | LOST |
| Slavia Mozyr vs Dnepr MogilevFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| Ararat Armenia vs UrartuFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Ararat Yerevan vs SardarapatFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 1-2 | WON |
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