Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo Wanderers
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 0-1
· first seen 4h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3945
3944 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−213.0u
over 3944u staked
Yield
−5.4%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L3
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 733 | 55.1%51%–59% | −0.8pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1489 | 62.3%60%–65% | −3.9pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1506 | 70.6%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 202 | 70.8%64%–77% | −9.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
841
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.6u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2000 | 68.5% | −85.1u |
| Match winner | 1945 | 60.4% | −127.9u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 732 | 67.2% | −21.0u |
| Superleague | 331 | 60.7% | −41.9u |
| League 1 | 321 | 67.3% | −10.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 189 | 59.8% | +18.2u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 102 | 65.7% | −4.6u |
| Serie B | 96 | 61.5% | −8.8u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 74 | 64.9% | −5.2u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3945 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 57m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 57m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 27m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 27m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 27m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 27m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 27m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 27m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 27m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 27m before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo WanderersFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| San Lorenzo Almagro vs HuracanFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Vikingur Reykjavik vs IB VestmannaeyjarFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.35 · +3.8% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Porto vs AlvercaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.17 · −1.7% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Slaven Belupo vs VarazdinFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 1-4 | WON |
| Anderlecht vs La LouviereFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.70 · +3.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Borac Banja Luka vs Velez MostarFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.33 · −1.5% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Shelbourne vs Saint Patrick's AthleticFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1-2 | WON |
| Banga Gargzdai vs Suduva MarijampoleFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0-3 | LOST |
| Gomel vs MinskFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Rangers vs HibernianFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.53 · +9.3% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Atyrau vs AktobeFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Shirak Gyumri vs NoahFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.27 · +6.7% CLV | 3-4 | WON |
| Veres Rivne vs Dynamo KievFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.25 · −3.8% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Heerenveen vs TwenteFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 2.03+103103/1001.03+1.03-0.97from 2.20 · +8.4% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| Halmstads vs GAISFootball · Premier League | first seen 57m before | X2Double Chance | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Goteborg vs Kalmar FFFootball · Premier League | first seen 57m before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 3-2 | LOST |
| Zulte Waregem vs GenkFootball · Premier League | first seen 27m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 2.12+11228/251.12+1.12-0.89from 2.15 · +1.4% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| FC Siauliai vs Dziugas TelsiaiFootball · Premier League | first seen 27m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 2.20+1206/51.20+1.20-0.83from 2.05 · −6.8% CLV | 3-4 | WON |
| Danubio vs Cerro MontevideoFootball · Premier League | first seen 27m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Waterford vs Bohemians DublinFootball · Premier League | first seen 27m before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 3-1 | LOST |
| Motherwell vs FalkirkFootball · Premier League | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.77 · −1.7% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Charleroi vs LeuvenFootball · Premier League | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72from 1.75 · +1.7% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Yelimay Semey vs Irtysh PavlodarFootball · Premier League | first seen 27m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Hearts vs Dundee UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72from 1.65 · −4.1% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
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