ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 2-3
· first seen 2h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6366
6361 graded · 5 void
Win rate
63.2%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−429.8u
over 6361u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L4
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 2 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 49 | 42.9%30%–57% | −2.0pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1255 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2325 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.2pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2359 | 68.6%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 361 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.1pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 10 | 80.0%49%–94% | −10.6pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3258
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±109.7u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 134 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3378 | 58.9% | −283.2u |
| Double chance | 2988 | 68.1% | −146.6u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1100 | 65.6% | −57.5u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 330 | 61.5% | +39.7u |
| League 2 | 226 | 58.4% | −34.7u |
| Division 1 | 172 | 59.9% | −24.3u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 137 | 61.3% | −11.9u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 96 | 52.1% | −21.5u |
| National league | 89 | 53.4% | −19.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6366 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 32m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 32m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 32m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 22m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 22m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4d 1h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 29m before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna SittardFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-3 | WON |
| Santa Clara vs Rio AveFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 4-0 | WON |
| Brommapojkarna vs ElfsborgFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Vikingur Reykjavik vs Fram ReykjavikFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52from 1.50 · −1.3% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| KA Akureyri vs BreidablikFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Kortrijk vs Zulte WaregemFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 2.30+13013/101.30+1.30-0.77from 2.10 · −8.7% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| Heerenveen vs AZ AlkmaarFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.75 · −2.8% CLV | 2-3 | WON |
| Telstar vs CambuurFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.60 · −5.9% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Veres Rivne vs ZoryaFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Orgryte vs HammarbyFootball · Premier League | first seen 2m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20from 1.20 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Ayutthaya United vs FC RatchaburiFootball · Premier League | first seen 2m before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Sukhothai vs Buriram UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 2m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28from 1.33 · +3.9% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Cercle Brugge vs GentFootball · Premier League | first seen 22m before | X2Double Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 0-3 | WON |
| Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai ThaniFootball · Premier League | first seen 22m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 1-4 | LOST |
| Groningen vs TwenteFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.87-11587/1000.87-1.15+0.87from 2.02 · +8.0% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Vissel Kobe vs V-Varen NagasakiFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.58-17229/500.58-1.72+0.58from 1.65 · +4.4% CLV | 3:1 | WON |
| Naftan Novopolotsk vs MinskFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.65 · 0.0% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
| Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F-MarinosFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.65 · −2.9% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo VerdyFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.77 · +7.3% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Nagoya Grampus vs Machida ZelviaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 2.25+1255/41.25+1.25-0.80from 2.18 · −3.1% CLV | 1:3 | WON |
| Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce HiroshimaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.85 · −2.6% CLV | 3:2 | LOST |
| Kashima Antlers vs Urawa Red DiamondsFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 1.82 · +2.2% CLV | 0:1 | LOST |
| Isidro Metapan vs IncaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.30 · 0.0% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Cusco vs Deportivo MoqueguaFootball · Premier League | first seen 4d 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 11.50+105021/210.50+10.50-0.10from 11.00 · −4.3% CLV | 2-0 | LOST |
| Fuerte San Francisco vs FASFootball · Premier League | first seen 29m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.65 · +3.1% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.