Cambrian United vs Holywell Town
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived
- Feed close
- 1.38-26319/500.38-2.63+0.38from 1.50 · +8.7% CLV
- Score
- 2-1
· first seen 42m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6222
6218 graded · 4 void
Win rate
63.3%
95% CI 62%–65%
Profit
−421.6u
over 6218u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 37 | 43.2%29%–59% | −1.7pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1201 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2295 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2325 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 350 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 9 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3115
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±108.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 130 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3250 | 58.9% | −278.6u |
| Double chance | 2972 | 68.2% | −143.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1094 | 65.5% | −58.8u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 307 | 62.5% | +42.9u |
| League 2 | 225 | 58.7% | −33.7u |
| Division 1 | 171 | 59.6% | −24.9u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 135 | 61.5% | −11.2u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 95 | 52.6% | −20.5u |
| National league | 87 | 54.0% | −18.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6222 picks with a captured kickoff.
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· first seen 42m before
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· first seen 25m before
Football · Premier League
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Football · Premier League
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Football · Premier League
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Football · Premier League
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Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
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Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 5h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambrian United vs Holywell TownFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.38-26319/500.38-2.63+0.38from 1.50 · +8.7% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Ammanford vs CaernarfonFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.08-12502/250.08-12.50+0.08from 1.17 · +8.3% CLV | 0-5 | WON |
| Shelbourne vs Derry CityFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Haverfordwest vs Briton FerryFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 3-1 | WON |
| Celik Zenica vs Radnik BijeljinaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 2.30+13013/101.30+1.30-0.77from 2.12 · −7.8% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Kaspiy Aktau vs AktobeFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 2.65+16533/201.65+1.65-0.61from 2.18 · −17.7% CLV | 2:1 | LOST |
| Stellenbosch vs Sekhukhune UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 52m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Minsk vs Slavia MozyrFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 1-0 | LOST |
| Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa FukuokaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 1:0 | WON |
| Mito HollyHock vs Kawasaki FrontaleFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0:1 | LOST |
| Ajman vs Al Ittihad KalbaFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 2-3 | LOST |
| Boca Juniors vs Central Cordoba SdEFootball · Premier League | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.50 · 0.0% CLV | 3:1 | WON |
| Thimphu vs DrukpaFootball · Premier League | first seen 25m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| FC Ratchaburi vs Bangkok UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 25m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Buriram United vs Chiangrai UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.15-6673/200.15-6.67+0.15from 1.16 · +0.9% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Airbus UK vs The New SaintsFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.18-5569/500.18-5.56+0.18from 1.20 · +1.7% CLV | 0:2 | WON |
| Mechelen vs AnderlechtFootball · Premier League | first seen 42m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.77-13077/1000.77-1.30+0.77from 1.80 · +1.7% CLV | 0:1 | WON |
| Estrela Amadora vs BragaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.65 · +6.5% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Vissel Kobe vs Kashima AntlersFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 2.20+1206/51.20+1.20-0.83from 2.90 · +31.8% CLV | 2:1 | WON |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-HazemFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.16-6254/250.16-6.25+0.16from 8.50 · +632.8% CLV | 5:1 | WON |
| AZ Alkmaar vs Willem IIFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.15-6673/200.15-6.67+0.15from 1.14 · −0.9% CLV | 1:1 | LOST |
| Al-Faisaly Harmah vs Al-Ittihad JeddahFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.72 · +18.6% CLV | 2:1 | LOST |
| Al-Qadsiah El-Khobar vs Al-EttifaqFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.25 · 0.0% CLV | 0:0 | LOST |
| Tampines Rovers vs Balestier KhalsaFootball · Premier League | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.30 · −3.7% CLV | 2:0 | WON |
| Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa ReysolFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 2:3 | WON |
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