Sarmiento vs Belgrano
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived
- Feed close
- 2.40+1407/51.40+1.40-0.71from 2.40 · 0.0% CLV
- Score
- 1-1
· first seen 1h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6222
6218 graded · 4 void
Win rate
63.3%
95% CI 62%–65%
Profit
−421.6u
over 6218u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 37 | 43.2%29%–59% | −1.7pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1201 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2295 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2325 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 350 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 9 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3115
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±108.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 130 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3250 | 58.9% | −278.6u |
| Double chance | 2972 | 68.2% | −143.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1094 | 65.5% | −58.8u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 307 | 62.5% | +42.9u |
| League 2 | 225 | 58.7% | −33.7u |
| Division 1 | 171 | 59.6% | −24.9u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 135 | 61.5% | −11.2u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 95 | 52.6% | −20.5u |
| National league | 87 | 54.0% | −18.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6222 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 46m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 41m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 31m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 31m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento vs BelgranoFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 2.40+1407/51.40+1.40-0.71from 2.40 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | WON |
| AB Argir vs B-68 ToftirFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| La Louviere vs KortrijkFootball · Premier League | first seen 46m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| Dinamo Minsk vs Dynamo BrestFootball · Premier League | first seen 41m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.82 · +1.1% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Arouca vs Santa ClaraFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| Benfica vs Gil VicenteFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.11-90911/1000.11-9.09+0.11from 1.15 · +3.6% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Macara vs EmelecFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 4.20+32016/53.20+3.20-0.31from 3.70 · −11.9% CLV | 1:0 | WON |
| Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La PlataFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 2:2 | WON |
| Sloga Doboj vs Zeljeznicar SarajevoFootball · Premier League | first seen 1m before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Zulte Waregem vs CharleroiFootball · Premier League | first seen 1m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Neom vs Al-FatehFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.60 · 0.0% CLV | 4-2 | WON |
| 07 Vestur vs KI KlaksvikFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.12-8333/250.12-8.33+0.12from 1.22 · +8.9% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| NSI Runavik vs Vikingur GotaFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 2.05 · +15.2% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| TS Galaxy vs Kruger UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 2.18+11859/501.18+1.18-0.85from 2.20 · +0.9% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Bukovyna Chernivtsi vs ZoryaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 2.30+13013/101.30+1.30-0.77from 2.35 · +2.2% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Istra 1961 vs RudesFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.45 · 0.0% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Barau vs Ranchers BeesFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.42-23821/500.42-2.38+0.42from 1.47 · +3.5% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Inter Lagos vs Sporting LagosFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.65 · −2.9% CLV | 0-3 | LOST |
| Zira vs QarabagFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| BATE Borisov vs Naftan NovopolotskFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.40 · 0.0% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Pyunik Yerevan vs Shirak GyumriFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Niger Tornadoes vs Plateau UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.42 · +1.4% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| PEC Zwolle vs FeyenoordFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.43 · +2.1% CLV | 0-7 | WON |
| Malmo FF vs OrgryteFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.38 · −1.4% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer ShevaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.47 · −8.1% CLV | 1:1 | LOST |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.