Varbergs BoIS vs Brage
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived
- Feed close
- 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.60 · −1.2% CLV
- Score
- 3-2
· first seen 10m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6222
6218 graded · 4 void
Win rate
63.3%
95% CI 62%–65%
Profit
−421.6u
over 6218u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 37 | 43.2%29%–59% | −1.7pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1201 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2295 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2325 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 350 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 9 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3115
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±108.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 130 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3250 | 58.9% | −278.6u |
| Double chance | 2972 | 68.2% | −143.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1094 | 65.5% | −58.8u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 307 | 62.5% | +42.9u |
| League 2 | 225 | 58.7% | −33.7u |
| Division 1 | 171 | 59.6% | −24.9u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 135 | 61.5% | −11.2u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 95 | 52.6% | −20.5u |
| National league | 87 | 54.0% | −18.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6222 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 10m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 10m before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 10m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 39m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 24m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 26m before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 26m before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varbergs BoIS vs BrageFootball · League 1 | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.60 · −1.2% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Oddevold vs VarnamoFootball · League 1 | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 2.20+1206/51.20+1.20-0.83from 2.05 · −6.8% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| MP vs JIPPOFootball · League 1 | first seen 10m before | X2Double Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1-0 | LOST |
| Burton Albion vs Mansfield TownFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 2.25+1255/41.25+1.25-0.80from 2.25 · 0.0% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Barnsley vs LeicesterFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Shenzhen Juniors vs Changchun YataiFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.65 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| United Nordic vs Landskrona BoISFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1-4 | WON |
| Valmiera vs Riga MarinersFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.70 · 0.0% CLV | 2-4 | LOST |
| Dunav Ruse vs Botev VratsaFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Osters IF vs NorrkopingFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 1-3 | WON |
| PSM Makassar vs Persita TangerangFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Persebaya Surabaya vs Garuda YaksaFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.35 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Luton Town vs Bradford CityFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 3:0 | WON |
| ASO Chlef vs MC OranFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Polonia Bytom vs Ruch ChorzowFootball · League 1 | first seen 39m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Blau Weiss Linz vs Admira Wacker ModlingFootball · League 1 | first seen 24m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.47 · +5.0% CLV | 0-3 | LOST |
| Lechia Gdansk vs Stal MielecFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.92 · +1.1% CLV | 7:1 | WON |
| Buducnost Podgorica vs PetrovacFootball · League 1 | first seen 26m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 2.18+11859/501.18+1.18-0.85from 2.18 · 0.0% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Muglaspor vs Igdir BelediyesporFootball · League 1 | first seen 26m before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Kapfenberg vs AmstettenFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 3-4 | WON |
| Hertha Wels vs First ViennaFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.77-13077/1000.77-1.30+0.77from 1.80 · +1.7% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Haka vs Klubi 04Football · League 1 | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| JaPS vs EIF EkenasFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1-0 | LOST |
| USM Khenchela vs ES Ben AknounFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| UTA Arad vs Sepsi Sfantu GheorgheFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.83 · −1.1% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
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