Polonia Bytom vs Pogon Siedlce
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived
- Feed close
- 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.60 · −1.8% CLV
- Score
- 2-2
· first seen 2h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6759
6754 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.9%
95% CI 62%–64%
Profit
−478.5u
over 6754u staked
Yield
−7.1%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 65 | 49.2%37%–61% | +4.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1350 | 55.0%52%–58% | −0.9pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2465 | 60.4%58%–62% | −5.7pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2475 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 384 | 72.7%68%–77% | −7.8pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 11 | 81.8%52%–95% | −8.8pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3651
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±113.5u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 142 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3662 | 58.7% | −316.2u |
| Double chance | 3097 | 67.9% | −162.4u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1117 | 65.6% | −58.5u |
| League 1 | 532 | 64.5% | −37.9u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 348 | 60.6% | +36.3u |
| League 2 | 240 | 58.3% | −37.1u |
| Division 1 | 180 | 59.4% | −26.6u |
| Division 2 | 144 | 63.2% | −11.3u |
| Serie B | 140 | 60.0% | −14.9u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 105 | 54.8% | −19.6u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 104 | 64.4% | −5.3u |
| Serie A | 99 | 52.5% | −21.6u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6759 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 9h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Bytom vs Pogon SiedlceFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.60 · −1.8% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| JaPS vs MPFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Haka vs JIPPOFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| UCSA vs Nyva TernopilFootball · League 1 | first seen 9h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Shakhtar Karaganda vs Kaspiy Aktau 2Football · League 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 2-3 | LOST |
| Academy Ontustik vs Khan TengryFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 3-1 | WON |
| Elimai 2 vs Kairat 2Football · League 1 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 1-0 | LOST |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.