Pafos vs AEL Limassol
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived
- Feed close
- 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.40 · −3.4% CLV
- Score
- 0-2
· first seen 26m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6222
6218 graded · 4 void
Win rate
63.3%
95% CI 62%–65%
Profit
−421.6u
over 6218u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 37 | 43.2%29%–59% | −1.7pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1201 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2295 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2325 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 350 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 9 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3115
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±108.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 130 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3250 | 58.9% | −278.6u |
| Double chance | 2972 | 68.2% | −143.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1094 | 65.5% | −58.8u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 307 | 62.5% | +42.9u |
| League 2 | 225 | 58.7% | −33.7u |
| Division 1 | 171 | 59.6% | −24.9u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 135 | 61.5% | −11.2u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 95 | 52.6% | −20.5u |
| National league | 87 | 54.0% | −18.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6222 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 26m before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
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Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
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Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
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Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
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AwayMatch Winner
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AwayMatch Winner
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AwayMatch Winner
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1XDouble Chance
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· first seen 3h before
Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
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Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
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Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 18h before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 19h before
Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 10h before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 27m before
Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Division 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 18m before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos vs AEL LimassolFootball · Division 1 | first seen 26m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.40 · −3.4% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| Shkendija vs Bashkimi KumanovoFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.04-25001/250.04-25.00+0.04from 1.06 · +1.9% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Oss vs DordrechtFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 2.17+117117/1001.17+1.17-0.85from 2.40 · +10.6% CLV | 3:0 | WON |
| Jong AZ Alkmaar vs FC VolendamFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Jong Ajax vs Roda KerkradeFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 1.85 · −7.5% CLV | 0:0 | LOST |
| Sileks vs Tikvesh 1930Football · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 3.60+26013/52.60+2.60-0.38from 3.15 · −12.5% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Al Bataeh vs Al HamriyahFootball · Division 1 | first seen 17h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 3.35+23547/202.35+2.35-0.43from 3.50 · +4.5% CLV | 0:0 | LOST |
| Krasava Ypsonas vs Aris LimassolFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.65 · +3.1% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Al-Najma vs Al-RaedFootball · Division 1 | first seen 20h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 2.17+117117/1001.17+1.17-0.85from 2.15 · −0.9% CLV | 3:1 | WON |
| Al-Tai vs Al-ZulfiFootball · Division 1 | first seen 20h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | 2.90+19019/101.90+1.90-0.53from 2.07 · −28.6% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Olympiacos Nicosia vs Omonia May 29Football · Division 1 | first seen 31m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 3-3 | WON |
| AEK Larnaca vs PafosFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.30 · −9.8% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Ranheim vs AsaneFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Moss vs HaugesundFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52from 1.50 · −1.3% CLV | 1-4 | WON |
| Hodd vs LynFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
| Raufoss vs OddFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.40 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Egersunds vs KongsvingerFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.80 · +5.9% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Al Hamriyah vs Al FujairahFootball · Division 1 | first seen 18h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.93-10893/1000.93-1.08+0.93from 1.85 · −4.1% CLV | 2-0 | LOST |
| FC Volendam vs Den BoschFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.63 · 0.0% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Sileks vs Bregalnica StipFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.33 · 0.0% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Al-Saqer vs Al-AnwarFootball · Division 1 | first seen 19h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 3:6 | LOST |
| Wofoo SE vs South ChinaFootball · Division 1 | first seen 10h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Longford Town vs Treaty UnitedFootball · Division 1 | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.90 · +5.6% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| Bryne vs StabaekFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 2.05 · +7.9% CLV | 2-0 | LOST |
| Karmiotissa vs Omonia AradippouFootball · Division 1 | first seen 18m before | X2Double Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
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