Sabah Baku vs AGF Aarhus
Football · Third qualifying round. Second leg
1XDouble Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 4-0
· first seen 1h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
4024
4023 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−212.8u
over 4023u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W7
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 762 | 55.5%52%–59% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1511 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1529 | 70.3%68%–73% | −4.7pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 207 | 71.5%65%–77% | −8.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
920
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±86.6u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2028 | 68.6% | −85.5u |
| Match winner | 1996 | 60.4% | −127.3u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 739 | 67.3% | −21.1u |
| Superleague | 341 | 61.3% | −40.4u |
| League 1 | 325 | 67.1% | −11.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 207 | 59.4% | +18.8u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 104 | 65.4% | −5.2u |
| Serie B | 101 | 62.4% | −7.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 79 | 63.3% | −5.8u |
| Championship | 76 | 65.8% | −4.4u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 4024 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Third qualifying round. Second leg
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Primera Division. Group stage
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 45m before
Football · Segunda Division
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 45m before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 15m before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 0m before
Football · Division 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Primera Nacional
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Primera Nacional
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Superleague
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League. Season 26/27
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 58m before
Football · League 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 58m before
Football · Serie A
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Liga Panamena
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Serie C
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Serie A
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Serie C
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah Baku vs AGF AarhusFootball · Third qualifying round. Second leg | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 4-0 | WON |
| Libertad Loja vs Universidad Catolica QuitoFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Tacuary Asuncion vs GuairenaFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Rayo Zuliano vs Estudiantes MeridaFootball · Primera Division. Group stage | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 0-3 | WON |
| Santa Clara vs Nacional MadeiraFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Fram Reykjavik vs KR ReykjavikFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 2-5 | WON |
| Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc RunaFootball · Premier League | first seen 45m before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 0-3 | WON |
| Rentistas vs Plaza ColoniaFootball · Segunda Division | first seen 45m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Pendikspor vs Batman PetrolsporFootball · League 1 | first seen 15m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak VarnaFootball · League 1 | first seen 0m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 3-2 | WON |
| Jong AZ Alkmaar vs FC EindhovenFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| All Boys vs Central NorteFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy vs Tristan SuarezFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Benfica 2 vs LeixoesFootball · Division 2 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Lusitania Lourosa vs Porto 2Football · Division 2 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
| Unia Skierniewice vs Arka GdyniaFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-0 | LOST |
| Silkeborg vs OdenseFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Fakel vs AkhmatFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Karpaty Lviv vs LNZ LebedinFootball · Premier League | first seen 58m before | X2Double Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 3-0 | LOST |
| Povazska Bystrica vs ViOn Zlate MoravceFootball · League 2 | first seen 58m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| America de Cali vs Atletico NacionalFootball · Serie A | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Sporting San Miguelito vs Alianza PanamaFootball · Liga Panamena | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Atletico Maranhao vs BrusqueFootball · Serie C | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Bragantino vs Corinthians SPFootball · Serie A | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
| Itabaiana vs CaxiasFootball · Serie C | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.