Nacional Madeira vs Estoril
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 2-0
· first seen 1h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3995
3994 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−216.7u
over 3994u staked
Yield
−5.4%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L4
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 746 | 55.2%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1505 | 62.3%60%–65% | −3.9pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1522 | 70.4%68%–73% | −4.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 207 | 71.5%65%–77% | −8.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
891
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±86.2u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2022 | 68.5% | −86.3u |
| Match winner | 1973 | 60.3% | −130.4u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 739 | 67.3% | −21.1u |
| Superleague | 341 | 61.3% | −40.4u |
| League 1 | 325 | 67.1% | −11.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 195 | 59.5% | +17.8u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 104 | 65.4% | −5.2u |
| Serie B | 99 | 61.6% | −8.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 79 | 63.3% | −5.8u |
| Championship | 76 | 65.8% | −4.4u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3995 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Superleague
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 50m before
Football · Superleague
X2Double Chance
· first seen 50m before
Football · Premier League. Season 26/27
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 50m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 50m before
Football · Division Nationale
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 50m before
Football · Superleague
X2Double Chance
· first seen 50m before
Football · Division 2. North
X2Double Chance
· first seen 50m before
Football · Women. Series A1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 50m before
Football · Serie B
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 50m before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 58m before
Football · Women. Major League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 58m before
Football · Regional League. North
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 58m before
Football · Superleague
X2Double Chance
· first seen 28m before
Football · Championship
X2Double Chance
· first seen 28m before
Football · Superleague
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Regional League. North-East
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Regional League. South-West
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Bundesliga 2
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Bundesliga 2
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Bundesliga 3
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Bundesliga 2
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Madeira vs EstorilFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 2-0 | LOST |
| GAIS vs Malmo FFFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Nasaf vs PakhtakorFootball · Superleague | first seen 50m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Oulu vs Inter TurkuFootball · Superleague | first seen 50m before | X2Double Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 2-3 | WON |
| Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo MakhachkalaFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 50m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 1-4 | LOST |
| Atletico Progreso vs Deportivo MaldonadoFootball · Premier League | first seen 50m before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Atert Bissen vs Progres NiederkornFootball · Division Nationale | first seen 50m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-4 | LOST |
| FC Lahti vs KuPS KuopioFootball · Superleague | first seen 50m before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1-2 | WON |
| FBK Karlstad vs Enkopings SKFootball · Division 2. North | first seen 50m before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-0 | LOST |
| Santos SP (w) vs Flamengo RJ (w)Football · Women. Series A1 | first seen 50m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-3 | LOST |
| Operario Ferroviario vs AvaiFootball · Serie B | first seen 50m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| Amarante vs Lusitania LourosaFootball · Division 2 | first seen 58m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| IFK Norrkoping (w) vs Kristianstads (w)Football · Women. Major League | first seen 58m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 0-5 | LOST |
| Bremer vs HSC HannoverFootball · Regional League. North | first seen 58m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Aalesund vs ValerengaFootball · Superleague | first seen 28m before | X2Double Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 5-5 | WON |
| Watford vs SouthamptonFootball · Championship | first seen 28m before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Odense vs HorsensFootball · Superleague | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| VSG Altglienicke vs HallescherFootball · Regional League. North-East | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Freiburg 2 vs Hessen KasselFootball · Regional League. South-West | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 5-1 | WON |
| Irtysh Pavlodar vs Tobol KostanayFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
| Dynamo Dresden vs Darmstadt 98Football · Bundesliga 2 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-0 | LOST |
| SK Beveren vs AnderlechtFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 1-0 | LOST |
| Arminia Bielefeld vs Energie CottbusFootball · Bundesliga 2 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 3-0 | LOST |
| Hansa Rostock vs Waldhof MannheimFootball · Bundesliga 3 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 3-3 | WON |
| Hannover 96 vs WolfsburgFootball · Bundesliga 2 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.