Portland Timbers vs Austin
Football · MLS
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived
- Feed close
- 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.57 · −7.6% CLV
- Score
- 1:2
· first seen 2h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3952
3951 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−210.9u
over 3951u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W1
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 739 | 55.3%52%–59% | −0.6pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1490 | 62.3%60%–65% | −4.0pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1506 | 70.6%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 202 | 70.8%64%–77% | −9.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
848
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.7u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2001 | 68.5% | −86.1u |
| Match winner | 1951 | 60.5% | −124.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 732 | 67.2% | −21.0u |
| Superleague | 331 | 60.7% | −41.9u |
| League 1 | 321 | 67.3% | −10.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 192 | 59.9% | +19.1u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 102 | 65.7% | −4.6u |
| Serie B | 99 | 61.6% | −8.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 74 | 64.9% | −5.2u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3952 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · MLS
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· first seen 2h before
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Football · USL
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1XDouble Chance
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Football · USL
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · MLS
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 32m before
Football · MLS
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 32m before
Football · MLS
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 32m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 32m before
Football · MLS
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 32m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 32m before
Football · USL
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · Serie A
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2m before
Football · USL. League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Baseball · MLB
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Baseball · MLB
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Primera C Metropolitana
X2Double Chance
· first seen 28m before
Football · Serie A
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 28m before
Football · Serie A
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 28m before
Football · Serie B
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 28m before
Football · Serie A
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 23m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Liga Nacional
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Liga Nacional
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers vs AustinFootball · MLS | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.57 · −7.6% CLV | 1:2 | LOST |
| Motagua vs OlanchoFootball · Liga Nacional | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| New Mexico United vs FC San AntonioFootball · USL | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 2.10+11011/101.10+1.10-0.91from 2.03 · −3.3% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Colorado Rapids vs Real Salt LakeFootball · MLS | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1:0 | WON |
| El Paso Locomotive vs Loudoun UnitedFootball · USL | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.62 · −1.8% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Minnesota United vs Orlando CityFootball · MLS | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.77-13077/1000.77-1.30+0.77from 1.73 · −2.3% CLV | 2:1 | WON |
| Houston Dynamo vs San Jose EarthquakesFootball · MLS | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.60 · 0.0% CLV | 0:0 | LOST |
| Nashville vs CincinnatiFootball · MLS | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.70 · 0.0% CLV | 4:0 | WON |
| Alianza Lima vs Deportivo GarcilasoFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver WhitecapsFootball · MLS | first seen 32m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.35 · 0.0% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
| Atletico Tucuman vs BelgranoFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2:0 | LOST |
| Oakland Roots vs Orange CountyFootball · USL | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.80 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Nublense vs Deportes ConcepcionFootball · Serie A | first seen 2m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Union Omaha vs New York CosmosFootball · USL. League 1 | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37from 1.37 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBaseball · MLB | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.96-10424/250.96-1.04+0.96derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas RangersBaseball · MLB | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | — | 5-3 | WON |
| Defensores Cambaceres vs Deportivo ParaguayoFootball · Primera C Metropolitana | first seen 28m before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria SalvadorFootball · Serie A | first seen 28m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.87-11587/1000.87-1.15+0.87from 1.75 · −6.4% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Deportes Limache vs Everton VMFootball · Serie A | first seen 28m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 0-3 | LOST |
| Union Espanola vs Rangers TalcaFootball · Serie B | first seen 28m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.93-10893/1000.93-1.08+0.93from 1.95 · +1.0% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Jaguares Cordoba vs America de CaliFootball · Serie A | first seen 23m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.78 · −6.3% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Guayaquil City vs LDU QuitoFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Cavalry vs VancouverFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.57-17557/1000.57-1.75+0.57from 1.47 · −6.4% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Deportivo Genesis vs MarathonFootball · Liga Nacional | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 1-2 | WON |
| Deportivo Guastatoya vs MarquenseFootball · Liga Nacional | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.57 · +2.6% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
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