Hednesford Town vs Southport
Football · National league. North
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived
- Feed close
- 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.20 · +2.3% CLV
- Score
- 2-2
· first seen 35m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
4062
4061 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.6%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−212.3u
over 4061u staked
Yield
−5.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 769 | 55.5%52%–59% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1526 | 62.5%60%–65% | −3.7pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1545 | 70.3%68%–73% | −4.7pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 207 | 71.5%65%–77% | −8.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−3pp
958
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±87.0u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2047 | 68.7% | −81.8u |
| Match winner | 2015 | 60.3% | −130.5u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 744 | 67.3% | −20.4u |
| Superleague | 343 | 61.5% | −39.8u |
| League 1 | 329 | 67.2% | −10.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 211 | 59.7% | +20.2u |
| League 2 | 153 | 60.8% | −17.3u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 104 | 65.4% | −5.2u |
| Serie B | 101 | 62.4% | −7.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 79 | 63.3% | −5.8u |
| Championship | 76 | 65.8% | −4.4u |
| Serie A | 69 | 50.7% | −16.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 4062 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · National league. North
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 35m before
Football · National league. North
X2Double Chance
· first seen 35m before
Football · National League. South
X2Double Chance
· first seen 35m before
Football · National League. South
X2Double Chance
· first seen 35m before
Football · National league. North
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 35m before
Football · National league. North
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 35m before
Football · National League. South
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 35m before
Football · National league. North
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 35m before
Football · National league. North
X2Double Chance
· first seen 35m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 8m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 8m before
Football · Superleague
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 25m before
Football · Serie B
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 53m before
Football · Group stage
X2Double Chance
· first seen 7d 22h before
Football · Serie B
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 24m before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 24m before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Liga Leumit
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Liga Leumit
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Liga Leumit
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 36m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hednesford Town vs SouthportFootball · National league. North | first seen 35m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.20 · +2.3% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Morecambe vs South ShieldsFootball · National league. North | first seen 35m before | X2Double Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Totton vs Dorking WanderersFootball · National League. South | first seen 35m before | X2Double Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 0-3 | WON |
| Dover Athletic vs Tonbridge AngelsFootball · National League. South | first seen 35m before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Hebburn Town vs Worksop TownFootball · National league. North | first seen 35m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Scarborough Athletic vs Spennymoor TownFootball · National league. North | first seen 35m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| Hemel Hempstead Town vs Maidenhead UnitedFootball · National League. South | first seen 35m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.20+1206/51.20+1.20-0.83from 2.20 · 0.0% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Marine vs ChorleyFootball · National league. North | first seen 35m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
| Darlington vs ChesterFootball · National league. North | first seen 35m before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Fram Reykjavik vs StjarnanFootball · Premier League | first seen 8m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.88 · +4.4% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Casa Pia vs BenficaFootball · Premier League | first seen 8m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.15-6673/200.15-6.67+0.15from 1.20 · +4.3% CLV | 0-7 | WON |
| Samsunspor vs GoztepeFootball · Superleague | first seen 25m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 3-3 | WON |
| Iquique vs AntofagastaFootball · Serie B | first seen 53m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Akhmat vs FakelFootball · Group stage | first seen 7d 22h before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| America Mineiro vs Athletic Minas GeraisFootball · Serie B | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 1-3 | WON |
| Sliema Wanderers vs HiberniansFootball · Premier League | first seen 24m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
| Muglaspor vs BandirmasporFootball · League 1 | first seen 24m before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Keciorengucu Ankara vs PendiksporFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 4-1 | WON |
| Kayserispor vs SivassporFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Sporting Cristal vs Sport HuancayoFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 4-1 | WON |
| Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Kafr QasemFootball · Liga Leumit | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Kiryat YamFootball · Liga Leumit | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 2-6 | WON |
| Hapoel Rishon Lezion vs Hapoel Kfar SabaFootball · Liga Leumit | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Racing Montevideo vs Nacional MontevideoFootball · Premier League | first seen 36m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 3.10+21021/102.10+2.10-0.48from 3.15 · +1.6% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Paykan vs Gol GoharFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.