Newcastle North Stars vs Sydney Ice Dogs
Ice Hockey · AIHL League
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.18-5569/500.18-5.56+0.18derived
- Feed close
- 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.35 · 0.0% CLV
- Score
- 4-3
· first seen 3h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3947
3946 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−215.0u
over 3946u staked
Yield
−5.4%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L3
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 734 | 55.0%51%–59% | −0.9pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1490 | 62.3%60%–65% | −4.0pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1506 | 70.6%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 202 | 70.8%64%–77% | −9.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
843
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.6u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2001 | 68.5% | −86.1u |
| Match winner | 1946 | 60.4% | −128.9u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 732 | 67.2% | −21.0u |
| Superleague | 331 | 60.7% | −41.9u |
| League 1 | 321 | 67.3% | −10.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 190 | 59.5% | +17.2u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 102 | 65.7% | −4.6u |
| Serie B | 97 | 60.8% | −9.8u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 74 | 64.9% | −5.2u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3947 picks with a captured kickoff.
Ice Hockey · AIHL League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · New South Wales. National Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Capital Territory. National Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · North New South Wales. National Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · USL. League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 15m before
Basketball · NBL. Final
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 15m before
Ice Hockey · AIHL League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 15m before
Football · North New South Wales. National Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 15m before
Football · Premier Division
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Women. NWSL
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 6h before
Football · USL
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · USL
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Liga Nacional
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Serie A
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · USL. League 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · USL
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 45m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 45m before
Football · USL
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 15m before
Football · MLS Next Pro
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Primera B Metropolitana
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Serie B
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Serie B
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Serie D. Quarter-finals. First leg
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Serie A
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Primera division
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle North Stars vs Sydney Ice DogsIce Hockey · AIHL League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.18-5569/500.18-5.56+0.18derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.35 · 0.0% CLV | 4-3 | WON |
| Wollongong Wolves vs Sydney UnitedFootball · New South Wales. National Premier League | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67from 1.65 · −1.2% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Canberra Juventus vs Canberra White EaglesFootball · Capital Territory. National Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.40 · 0.0% CLV | 4-2 | WON |
| Charlestown Azzurri vs FC MaitlandFootball · North New South Wales. National Premier League | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.57 · −7.6% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| AV Alta vs Fort WayneFootball · USL. League 1 | first seen 15m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| Southland Sharks vs Wellington SaintsBasketball · NBL. Final | first seen 15m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | — | 104-101 | LOST |
| Canberra Brave vs Melbourne IceIce Hockey · AIHL League | first seen 15m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.55 · +3.3% CLV | 5-2 | WON |
| Broadmeadow Magic vs KahibahFootball · North New South Wales. National Premier League | first seen 15m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28from 1.30 · +1.6% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Puntarenas vs Deportivo SaprissaFootball · Premier Division | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Denver Summit (w) vs Utah Royals (w)Football · Women. NWSL | first seen 6h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 2.50+1503/21.50+1.50-0.67from 2.65 · +6.0% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Orange County vs Tampa Bay RowdiesFootball · USL | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 0-3 | LOST |
| Monterey Bay vs New Mexico UnitedFootball · USL | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 2.60+1608/51.60+1.60-0.63from 2.70 · +3.8% CLV | 2-5 | WON |
| Real Espana vs Deportivo GenesisFootball · Liga Nacional | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.62 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo CaliFootball · Serie A | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Athletic Boise vs Forward MadisonFootball · USL. League 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 4.60+36018/53.60+3.60-0.28from 3.95 · −14.1% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| El Paso Locomotive vs Oakland RootsFootball · USL | first seen 45m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Sport Boys vs Alianza LimaFootball · Premier League | first seen 45m before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Tulsa vs Detroit CityFootball · USL | first seen 15m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Minnesota United 2 vs TownFootball · MLS Next Pro | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo ItalianoFootball · Primera B Metropolitana | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 3.85+28557/202.85+2.85-0.35from 2.65 · −31.2% CLV | 0-4 | LOST |
| Botafogo SP vs America MineiroFootball · Serie B | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 1.77 · −0.6% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Cobreloa vs IquiqueFootball · Serie B | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.70 · −2.9% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Goiatuba vs ASA ArapiracaFootball · Serie D. Quarter-finals. First leg | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Fortaleza Zipaquira vs Cucuta DeportivoFootball · Serie A | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.77-13077/1000.77-1.30+0.77from 1.60 · −9.6% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| The Strongest vs Independiente PetroleroFootball · Primera division | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.22-45511/500.22-4.55+0.22from 1.16 · −4.9% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.