Lusitania Lourosa vs AVS
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 2-1
· first seen 4h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3904
3903 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.6%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−209.8u
over 3903u staked
Yield
−5.4%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W3
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 720 | 55.1%51%–59% | −0.8pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1478 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1491 | 70.6%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 200 | 70.5%64%–76% | −9.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
800
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 91 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1981 | 68.6% | −83.9u |
| Match winner | 1923 | 60.5% | −125.9u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 726 | 67.2% | −20.9u |
| Superleague | 329 | 60.8% | −41.4u |
| League 1 | 320 | 67.5% | −9.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 187 | 59.4% | +16.2u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 101 | 66.3% | −3.6u |
| Serie B | 96 | 61.5% | −8.8u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 77 | 63.6% | −5.1u |
| Championship | 69 | 65.2% | −4.6u |
| Serie A | 67 | 52.2% | −14.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 54 | 61.1% | −5.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3904 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Division 2
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · Division 2
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Division 2
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 23m before
Football · Division 2
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 2
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 2
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Division 2
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1m before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1m before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 2
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 2
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Division 2
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2m before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 24m before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 57m before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 2
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 2
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 59m before
Football · Division 2
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 59m before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 59m before
Football · Division 2
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitania Lourosa vs AVSFootball · Division 2 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Union Comercio vs Deportivo Universidad San MartínFootball · Division 2 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 4.80+38019/53.80+3.80-0.26from 4.50 · −6.3% CLV | 1-1 | WON |
| Alianza Universidad vs Union MinasFootball · Division 2 | first seen 2m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 3.95+29559/202.95+2.95-0.34from 3.10 · −21.5% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Francs Borains vs Lokeren TemseFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 3-0 | LOST |
| Leiria vs PortimonenseFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Leixoes vs AmaranteFootball · Division 2 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 3-1 | WON |
| Academia Cantolao vs Deportivo LlacuabambaFootball · Division 2 | first seen 23m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.93 · +7.2% CLV | 3-2 | LOST |
| Kloetinge vs IJsselmeervogelsFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| ROHDA Raalte vs Kozakken BoysFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.55 · +10.7% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Comerciantes vs AyacuchoFootball · Division 2 | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 5-1 | LOST |
| Dender vs SeraingFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47from 1.55 · +5.4% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Beerschot Wilrijk vs Patro Eisden MaasmechelenFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 4-2 | WON |
| Independiente Campo Grande vs Fernando de la MoraFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Deportivo Capiata vs 3 de NoviembreFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 4-3 | LOST |
| Encarnacion vs Benjamin AcevalFootball · Division 2 | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 1-3 | WON |
| Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Union ComercioFootball · Division 2 | first seen 2m before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 2.80+1809/51.80+1.80-0.56from 2.80 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | WON |
| Seraing vs Lierse KempenzonenFootball · Division 2 | first seen 24m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| AVS vs FeirenseFootball · Division 2 | first seen 57m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Torreense vs VizelaFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-3 | LOST |
| Deportivo Tigres vs Universitario TarijaFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Quick Boys vs KloetingeFootball · Division 2 | first seen 59m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27from 1.37 · +7.9% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Deportivo Santani vs Atletico TembetaryFootball · Division 2 | first seen 59m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.53 · +9.3% CLV | 3-4 | LOST |
| IJsselmeervogels vs RKAV VolendamFootball · Division 2 | first seen 59m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| General Caballero vs Deportivo CapiataFootball · Division 2 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 2.03+103103/1001.03+1.03-0.97from 1.43 · −29.6% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| 3 de Noviembre vs Independiente Campo GrandeFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 5-2 | WON |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.