Grotta vs IR Reykjavik
Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 1-3
· first seen 12m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3560
3559 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.6%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−194.8u
over 3559u staked
Yield
−5.5%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W6
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 642 | 54.8%51%–59% | −1.1pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1355 | 62.1%59%–65% | −4.2pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1360 | 70.8%68%–73% | −4.2pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 188 | 72.3%66%–78% | −8.1pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
456
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±81.2u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 91 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1816 | 68.3% | −82.6u |
| Match winner | 1744 | 60.7% | −112.2u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 649 | 67.2% | −19.8u |
| League 1 | 295 | 66.8% | −12.8u |
| Superleague | 292 | 61.6% | −33.3u |
| MLBMLB league page | 158 | 60.1% | +15.9u |
| League 2 | 149 | 61.1% | −16.3u |
| Division 1 | 103 | 65.0% | −5.3u |
| Division 2 | 94 | 67.0% | −2.0u |
| Serie B | 83 | 57.8% | −11.4u |
| Championship | 67 | 64.2% | −5.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 63 | 63.5% | −4.2u |
| Serie A | 59 | 54.2% | −11.3u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 54 | 61.1% | −5.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3560 picks with a captured kickoff.
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Football · Premier League
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Football · Primera Nacional
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Football · League 1
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· first seen 4h before
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Football · Premier League
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Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Regional League. East
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Challenge League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grotta vs IR ReykjavikFootball · Division 1 | first seen 12m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 1-3 | LOST |
| Union Brescia vs CarpiFootball · Serie C. Group A | first seen 55m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.30 · −3.7% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Linfield vs CliftonvilleFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Colwyn Bay vs Airbus UKFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.50 · −14.3% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Haverfordwest vs Cambrian UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92from 1.75 · −8.9% CLV | 0-3 | LOST |
| Finn Harps vs Cobh RamblersFootball · Division 1 | first seen 40m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 2.07+107107/1001.07+1.07-0.93from 2.05 · −1.0% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Inverness vs Partick ThistleFootball · Championship | first seen 25m before | X2Double Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Rapperswil-Jona vs WinterthurFootball · Challenge League | first seen 10m before | X2Double Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon SiedlceFootball · League 1 | first seen 25m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Sarajevo vs BSK Banja LukaFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27from 1.20 · −5.5% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Pau vs NancyFootball · Ligue 2 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Vitesse vs Almere CityFootball · Division 1 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 0-3 | LOST |
| Acassuso vs Godoy CruzFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Lokeren Temse vs EupenFootball · Division 2 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Mornar Bar vs Buducnost PodgoricaFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Boulogne vs Red StarFootball · Ligue 2 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Dordrecht vs Roda KerkradeFootball · Division 1 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Karvina vs Viktoria ZizkovFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.33 · 0.0% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| FCM Traiskirchen vs SV LeobendorfFootball · Regional League. East | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 5-4 | WON |
| Neuchatel Xamax vs Stade Lausanne-OuchyFootball · Challenge League | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1-2 | WON |
| Wiener SK vs SC Wiener ViktoriaFootball · Regional League. East | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.43 · +2.1% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Aldosivi vs Union Santa FeFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-3 | LOST |
| Petrolul Ploiesti vs Rapid BucurestiFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Horn vs DonauFootball · Regional League. East | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37from 1.28 · −6.6% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Nyonnais vs Etoile-CarougeFootball · Challenge League | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
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