Criciuma vs Goias
Football · Serie B
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived
- Feed close
- 1.68-14717/250.68-1.47+0.68from 1.75 · +4.2% CLV
- Score
- 1-0
· first seen 6m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3856
3855 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.4%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−217.4u
over 3855u staked
Yield
−5.6%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 704 | 54.7%51%–58% | −1.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1465 | 62.3%60%–65% | −3.9pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1475 | 70.4%68%–73% | −4.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 197 | 71.6%65%–77% | −8.8pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
752
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±84.5u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 91 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1959 | 68.5% | −85.5u |
| Match winner | 1897 | 60.3% | −131.9u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 717 | 67.2% | −20.2u |
| Superleague | 324 | 61.4% | −37.9u |
| League 1 | 313 | 67.1% | −11.5u |
| MLBMLB league page | 179 | 59.2% | +14.8u |
| League 2 | 151 | 60.3% | −18.3u |
| Division 1 | 106 | 64.2% | −6.9u |
| Division 2 | 100 | 66.0% | −4.0u |
| Serie B | 95 | 61.1% | −9.3u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 77 | 63.6% | −5.1u |
| Championship | 69 | 65.2% | −4.6u |
| Serie A | 67 | 52.2% | −14.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 54 | 61.1% | −5.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3856 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Serie B
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6m before
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Football · Superleague
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· first seen 8m before
Football · Superleague
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Football · League 1
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Football · Superleague
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Football · Premier League
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· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
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Football · Primera Nacional
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma vs GoiasFootball · Serie B | first seen 6m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.68-14717/250.68-1.47+0.68from 1.75 · +4.2% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Manta vs Leones del NorteFootball · Premier League | first seen 6m before | X2Double Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Ceara Fortaleza vs CuiabaFootball · Serie B | first seen 6m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 1-3 | LOST |
| Campobasso vs CaveseFootball · Serie C. Cup. 1/32 Finals | first seen 6m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Genk vs VesterloFootball · Premier League | first seen 38m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.60 · +14.3% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Leuven vs BruggeFootball · Premier League | first seen 38m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.38 · −4.8% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
| Kaiserslautern vs KarlsruherFootball · Bundesliga 2 | first seen 23m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.98-10249/500.98-1.02+0.98from 1.87 · −5.6% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Zeleziarne Podbrezova vs TrencinFootball · Superleague | first seen 23m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.52 · −1.9% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Rapid Bucuresti vs Dinamo BucurestiFootball · League 1 | first seen 23m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Genclerbirligi vs FenerbahceFootball · Superleague | first seen 23m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.43 · −11.7% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Bursaspor vs Igdir BelediyesporFootball · League 1 | first seen 23m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.58 · +9.0% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Manisa vs VansporFootball · League 1 | first seen 23m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 4-1 | WON |
| Widzew Lodz vs Korona KielceFootball · Superleague | first seen 8m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.95-10519/200.95-1.05+0.95from 1.95 · 0.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Olimpija Ljubljana vs MariborFootball · Superleague | first seen 8m before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Ludogorets Razgrad vs Botev PlovdivFootball · League 1 | first seen 8m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.57-17557/1000.57-1.75+0.57from 1.55 · −1.3% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Excelsior vs PSVFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.53 · +9.3% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Argentino Merlo vs ItuzaingoFootball · Primera B Metropolitana | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.63 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Fluminense RJ (w) vs America Minas Gerais (w)Football · Women. Series A1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27from 1.30 · +2.4% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Atletico San Miguel vs CA ColegialesFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-0 | LOST |
| Viktoria Plzen vs Fastav ZlinFootball · Superleague | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.23 · −1.6% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Al-Nassr Riyadh vs Al-FatehFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.15-6673/200.15-6.67+0.15from 1.11 · −3.5% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Milford vs Kruger UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Durban City vs Richards BayFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.10+11011/101.10+1.10-0.91from 2.20 · +4.8% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Ferro Carril Oeste vs AtlantaFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 3-1 | WON |
| Sutjeska Niksic vs OtrantFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1-4 | LOST |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.