Helsingborg vs Varnamo
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived
- Feed close
- 2.75+1757/41.75+1.75-0.57from 2.20 · −20.0% CLV
- Score
- 1-2
· first seen 2h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3317
3316 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−189.3u
over 3316u staked
Yield
−5.7%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W3
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 6 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 583 | 54.7%51%–59% | −1.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1283 | 61.6%59%–64% | −4.7pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1270 | 70.9%68%–73% | −4.1pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 171 | 73.7%67%–80% | −6.7pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 3 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3102
Sept 26
−6pp
214
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±78.3u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 88 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1717 | 68.1% | −82.2u |
| Match winner | 1600 | 60.5% | −107.1u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 610 | 67.2% | −17.6u |
| League 1 | 276 | 67.4% | −8.9u |
| Superleague | 270 | 60.7% | −35.6u |
| MLBMLB league page | 147 | 60.5% | +15.9u |
| League 2 | 142 | 60.6% | −17.8u |
| Division 1 | 91 | 67.0% | −1.4u |
| Division 2 | 88 | 65.9% | −3.7u |
| Serie B | 80 | 57.5% | −11.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 62 | 64.5% | −3.2u |
| Serie A | 57 | 54.4% | −10.8u |
| Championship | 56 | 64.3% | −4.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 53 | 62.3% | −4.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3317 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helsingborg vs VarnamoFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 2.75+1757/41.75+1.75-0.57from 2.20 · −20.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Kauno Zalgiris vs Dinamo ZagrebFootball · Third qualifying round. Second leg | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47from 1.40 · −4.8% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Bodo/Glimt vs Union Saint-GilloiseFootball · Third qualifying round. Second leg | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.65 · −2.9% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Diablos Rojos vs Fuerza RegiaBasketball · LNBP | first seen 6h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20derived | — | 94-95 | LOST |
| Seattle Storm (w) vs Chicago Sky (w)Basketball · WNBA | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | — | 97-88 | WON |
| Puerto Montt vs Espanol OsornoBasketball · Liga Nacional | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.10-10001/100.10-10.00+0.10derived | — | 82-79 | WON |
| Union Santa Fe vs Central Cordoba SdEFootball · Premier League | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.70 · 0.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Deportivo Cuenca vs MantaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3d 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 5.70+47047/104.70+4.70-0.21from 6.00 · +5.3% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Botafogo RJ (w) vs Fluminense RJ (w)Football · Women. Series A1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.62 · +8.0% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Sepsi Sfantu Gheorghe vs FCSBFootball · League 1 | first seen 15m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.88 · +1.6% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Jong PSV Eindhoven vs FC VolendamFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.97-10397/1000.97-1.03+0.97from 1.85 · −6.1% CLV | 2-3 | WON |
| Moss vs OddFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.95-10519/200.95-1.05+0.95from 2.08 · +6.7% CLV | 3-3 | LOST |
| Sirius vs BrommapojkarnaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43from 1.33 · −7.0% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Vasteras vs DjurgardensFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.80 · +16.1% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| Rigas FS vs GrobinasFootball · Virsliga | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.12-8333/250.12-8.33+0.12from 1.11 · −0.9% CLV | 6-1 | WON |
| Flora 2 Tallinn vs Nomme Kalju 2Football · League 2 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.48 · +11.3% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Transinvest vs PanevezysFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.65 · +3.1% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| Nacional Montevideo vs Boston RiverFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.42-23821/500.42-2.38+0.42from 1.50 · +5.6% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Santos SP vs Atletico ParanaenseFootball · Serie A | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 3.75+27511/42.75+2.75-0.36from 3.60 · −4.0% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| Union La Calera vs Colo ColoFootball · Serie A | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67from 1.70 · +1.8% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| FC Juticalpa vs Olimpia TegucigalpaFootball · Liga Nacional | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23from 1.25 · +1.6% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Sao Paulo (w) vs Red Bull Bragantino (w)Football · Women. Series A1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.45 · 0.0% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Melgar vs CajamarcaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.25 · +5.0% CLV | 2-4 | LOST |
| Gimnasia Tiro vs Nueva ChicagoFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.85 · +8.8% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Breidablik vs Valur ReykjavikFootball · Premier League | first seen 55m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.55 · −16.2% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
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