The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived
- Feed close
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.28 · +2.4% CLV
- Score
- 5-1
· first seen 47m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3213
3212 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.8%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−171.7u
over 3212u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50%avg claim 47% | 3 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 548 | 55.1%51%–59% | −0.9pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1256 | 61.9%59%–65% | −4.4pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1234 | 71.0%68%–73% | −4.0pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 168 | 74.4%67%–80% | −6.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 3 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3100
Sept 26
−3pp
112
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±76.8u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 87 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1679 | 68.5% | −71.6u |
| Match winner | 1534 | 60.8% | −100.1u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 582 | 67.0% | −18.5u |
| League 1 | 263 | 68.8% | −2.9u |
| Superleague | 259 | 61.4% | −31.8u |
| League 2 | 141 | 61.0% | −16.8u |
| MLBMLB league page | 130 | 61.5% | +16.4u |
| Division 1 | 91 | 67.0% | −1.4u |
| Division 2 | 87 | 66.7% | −2.7u |
| Serie B | 80 | 57.5% | −11.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 61 | 65.6% | −2.2u |
| Serie A | 54 | 53.7% | −10.5u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 53 | 62.3% | −4.7u |
| Championship | 52 | 63.5% | −4.6u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3213 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 47m before
Football · National league
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 47m before
Football · National league
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Championship
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Championship
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
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Football · Championship
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Premier League. Season 26/27
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 47m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 47m before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Superleague
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Superleague
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 32m before
Baseball · MLB
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Ligue 2
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · Ligue 2
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · Ligue 2
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New Saints vs Colwyn BayFootball · Premier League | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.28 · +2.4% CLV | 5-1 | WON |
| Aldershot Town vs Harrogate TownFootball · National league | first seen 47m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 2.08+10827/251.08+1.08-0.93from 1.88 · −9.6% CLV | 3-1 | LOST |
| Hartlepool United vs EastleighFootball · National league | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.70 · +3.0% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Juvenes/Dogana vs FaetanoFootball · Championship | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.60 · +14.3% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Cailungo vs SP DomagnanoFootball · Championship | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32from 1.40 · +6.1% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Rio Ave vs Sporting LisbonFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32from 1.32 · 0.0% CLV | 0-4 | WON |
| Folgore/Falciano vs MurataFootball · Championship | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.05-20001/200.05-20.00+0.05from 1.10 · +4.8% CLV | 3:3 | LOST |
| Crystal Palace vs Manchester CityFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.68 · +1.8% CLV | 1:4 | WON |
| Barry Town vs Airbus UKFootball · Premier League | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.68 · +3.7% CLV | 1:0 | WON |
| Cork City vs WexfordFootball · Division 1 | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.37 · +5.4% CLV | 2:3 | LOST |
| Holywell Town vs CaernarfonFootball · Premier League | first seen 47m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.17-58817/1000.17-5.88+0.17from 1.30 · +11.1% CLV | 3-5 | WON |
| Kerry vs Treaty UnitedFootball · Division 1 | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92from 1.93 · +0.5% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Genk vs SK BeverenFootball · Premier League | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.48 · −4.5% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Connahs Quay vs Cambrian UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.45 · −6.5% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Genclerbirligi vs Erzurumspor BBFootball · Superleague | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 2.20+1206/51.20+1.20-0.83from 1.90 · −13.6% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Legia Warsaw vs Slask WroclawFootball · Superleague | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.50 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati RedsBaseball · MLB | first seen 22m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | — | 8-10 | LOST |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv PlovdivFootball · League 1 | first seen 17m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.62 · +1.2% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Laval vs GrenobleFootball · Ligue 2 | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 2.02+10251/501.02+1.02-0.98from 2.07 · +2.5% CLV | 0-3 | LOST |
| Montpellier vs BoulogneFootball · Ligue 2 | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.70 · −2.9% CLV | 0:0 | LOST |
| Al-Nassr Riyadh vs Al-Taawoun BuraydahFootball · Premier League | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23from 1.19 · −3.3% CLV | 0:0 | LOST |
| Groningen vs Fortuna SittardFootball · Premier League | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.55 · +3.3% CLV | 2:3 | LOST |
| Oss vs Jong UtrechtFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.90 · 0.0% CLV | 1:0 | WON |
| Universitatea Cluj vs Petrolul PloiestiFootball · League 1 | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.72 · +6.2% CLV | 2-3 | LOST |
| Rodez vs PauFootball · Ligue 2 | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 1.65 · −7.3% CLV | 2:2 | LOST |
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