Holywell Town vs Barry Town
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived
- Feed close
- 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32from 1.42 · +7.6% CLV
- Score
- 1-3
· first seen 40m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3190
3189 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.9%
95% CI 63%–67%
Profit
−167.0u
over 3189u staked
Yield
−5.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50%avg claim 47% | 3 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 542 | 55.5%51%–60% | −0.5pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1249 | 61.9%59%–65% | −4.4pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1226 | 71.0%68%–73% | −4.0pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 166 | 74.1%67%–80% | −6.3pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 3 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3100
Sept 26
−1pp
89
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±76.5u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 87 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1668 | 68.4% | −73.3u |
| Match winner | 1522 | 61.0% | −93.7u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 575 | 66.8% | −19.6u |
| League 1 | 260 | 68.8% | −2.9u |
| Superleague | 256 | 61.3% | −31.5u |
| League 2 | 141 | 61.0% | −16.8u |
| MLBMLB league page | 128 | 62.5% | +18.4u |
| Division 1 | 91 | 67.0% | −1.4u |
| Division 2 | 87 | 66.7% | −2.7u |
| Serie B | 80 | 57.5% | −11.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 61 | 65.6% | −2.2u |
| Serie A | 54 | 53.7% | −10.5u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 53 | 62.3% | −4.7u |
| Championship | 52 | 63.5% | −4.6u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3190 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 40m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 40m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 55m before
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X2Double Chance
· first seen 57m before
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1XDouble Chance
· first seen 40m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
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1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4d 23h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 50m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 47m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holywell Town vs Barry TownFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32from 1.42 · +7.6% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| FC Dundalk vs GalwayFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| Marsaxlokk vs HiberniansFootball · Premier League | first seen 55m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Alianza Atletico vs Sporting CristalFootball · Premier League | first seen 57m before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 3-1 | LOST |
| Linfield vs CliftonvilleFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Colwyn Bay vs Airbus UKFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.50 · −14.3% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Haverfordwest vs Cambrian UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 40m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92from 1.75 · −8.9% CLV | 0-3 | LOST |
| Sarajevo vs BSK Banja LukaFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27from 1.20 · −5.5% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Aldosivi vs Union Santa FeFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-3 | LOST |
| Vikingur Gota vs B-36 TorshavnFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Zamalek vs Al Ittihad AlexandriaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.50 · +11.1% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Sirius vs HackenFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67from 1.80 · +7.8% CLV | 0-3 | LOST |
| Cajamarca vs Atletico GrauFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.95-10519/200.95-1.05+0.95from 2.20 · +12.8% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
| Floriana vs Sliema WanderersFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Minsk vs VitebskFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Cacahuatique vs Fuerte San FranciscoFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.93-10893/1000.93-1.08+0.93from 1.90 · −1.6% CLV | 0-0 | WON |
| Royal Antwerp vs SK BeverenFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Fajr Sepasi vs Sanat Naft AbadanFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal SFCFootball · Premier League | first seen 4d 23h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20from 1.22 · +1.7% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
| HB Torshavn vs B-68 ToftirFootball · Premier League | first seen 50m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28from 1.25 · −2.3% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Neom vs Al-FayhaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.60 · −3.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Persepolis Tehran vs Esteghlal KhuzestanFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.30 · 0.0% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Aluminium Arak vs Chador MaluFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Astana vs OkzhetpesFootball · Premier League | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.65 · +7.8% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Avispa Fukuoka vs Vissel KobeFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
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