Naftagas vs Graficar Beograd
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 2-1
· first seen 1h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3178
3178 graded
Win rate
64.9%
95% CI 63%–67%
Profit
−164.8u
over 3178u staked
Yield
−5.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50%avg claim 47% | 3 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 542 | 55.5%51%–60% | −0.5pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1242 | 62.0%59%–65% | −4.3pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1222 | 70.9%68%–73% | −4.0pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 166 | 74.1%67%–80% | −6.3pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 3 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3100
Sept 26
+1pp
78
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±76.3u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 87 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1661 | 68.5% | −72.0u |
| Match winner | 1517 | 61.0% | −92.9u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 570 | 67.2% | −16.2u |
| League 1 | 259 | 68.7% | −3.3u |
| Superleague | 256 | 61.3% | −31.5u |
| League 2 | 141 | 61.0% | −16.8u |
| MLBMLB league page | 128 | 62.5% | +18.4u |
| Division 1 | 91 | 67.0% | −1.4u |
| Division 2 | 87 | 66.7% | −2.7u |
| Serie B | 80 | 57.5% | −11.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 61 | 65.6% | −2.2u |
| Serie A | 54 | 53.7% | −10.5u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 53 | 62.3% | −4.7u |
| Championship | 52 | 63.5% | −4.6u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3178 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 22m before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 22m before
Football · League 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 7m before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 27m before
Football · League 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 50m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 27m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 27m before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 22m before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 49m before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naftagas vs Graficar BeogradFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Botev Vratsa vs Botev PlovdivFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 2.05 · +7.9% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| Otelul Galati vs Arges PitestiFootball · League 1 | first seen 22m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Sivasspor vs ManisaFootball · League 1 | first seen 22m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda KardzhaliFootball · League 1 | first seen 7m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.35 · +9.3% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Varnamo vs Landskrona BoISFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Norrkoping vs FalkenbergsFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52from 1.53 · +0.7% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Botosani vs Csikszereda Miercurea CiucFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.62 · −4.7% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Smederevo 1924 vs TeleoptikFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.50 · −3.2% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Dinamo Bucuresti vs Universitatea ClujFootball · League 1 | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.80 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Queen of South vs Alloa AthleticFootball · League 1 | first seen 50m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 2.50+1503/21.50+1.50-0.67from 2.50 · 0.0% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| Vozdovac vs MetalacFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.63 · −11.9% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Etoile Metlaoui vs Club AfrikanFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Zarzis vs Olympique BejaFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.57-17557/1000.57-1.75+0.57from 1.65 · +5.1% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Ludogorets Razgrad vs Slavia SofiaFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.35 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Umraniyespor vs EroksporFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Valmiera vs MarupesFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.19 · −4.8% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Antalyaspor vs PendiksporFootball · League 1 | first seen 27m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-3 | LOST |
| Bodrumspor vs MuglasporFootball · League 1 | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.63 · −9.4% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Hammam-Sousse vs US MonastirFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Nantong Zhiyun vs Shaanxi UnionFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 4-1 | WON |
| Guangxi Hengchen vs Suzhou DongwuFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.50 · +7.1% CLV | 3-3 | LOST |
| CFR Cluj vs FCSBFootball · League 1 | first seen 22m before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1-0 | LOST |
| Bizertin vs AS MarsaFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Sepsi Sfantu Gheorghe vs Farul ConstantaFootball · League 1 | first seen 49m before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
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