Progres Niederkorn vs Rumelange
Football · Division Nationale
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived
- Feed close
- 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.52 · +1.3% CLV
- Score
- 3-0
· first seen 2h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3913
3912 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.6%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−208.9u
over 3912u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 724 | 55.2%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1480 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1494 | 70.5%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 200 | 70.5%64%–76% | −9.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
809
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.2u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 91 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1986 | 68.5% | −84.8u |
| Match winner | 1927 | 60.5% | −124.1u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 729 | 67.2% | −20.6u |
| Superleague | 329 | 60.8% | −41.4u |
| League 1 | 320 | 67.5% | −9.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 189 | 59.8% | +18.2u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 101 | 66.3% | −3.6u |
| Serie B | 96 | 61.5% | −8.8u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 69 | 65.2% | −4.6u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 54 | 61.1% | −5.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3913 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progres Niederkorn vs RumelangeFootball · Division Nationale | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.52 · +1.3% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Lorenskog vs JunkerenFootball · Division 2. Group 2 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 3.80+28014/52.80+2.80-0.36from 3.65 · −3.9% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Davos vs Eisbaren BerlinIce Hockey · Champions League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67from 1.65 · −1.2% CLV | 8-2 | WON |
| Cesena vs MantovaFootball · Serie B | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Grosseto vs TorresFootball · Serie C. Group B | first seen 40h before | X2Double Chance | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | — | 2-0 | LOST |
| Dynamo Makhachkala vs Rodina MoscowFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.78 · −6.3% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Frosinone vs VeneziaFootball · Serie A. Season 26/27 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 2.40+1407/51.40+1.40-0.71from 2.75 · +14.6% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Modena vs AvellinoFootball · Serie B | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.75 · +9.4% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Troyes vs StrasbourgFootball · Ligue 1. Season 26/27 | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 2.95+19539/201.95+1.95-0.51from 3.10 · +5.1% CLV | 2:6 | WON |
| Virtus Entella vs VicenzaFootball · Serie B | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Parma vs MonzaFootball · Serie A. Season 26/27 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 2.65+16533/201.65+1.65-0.61from 2.50 · −5.7% CLV | 1:1 | WON |
| Jablonec vs Slovan LiberecFootball · Superleague | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 1-2 | WON |
| Everton vs Manchester UnitedFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 2.10 · +10.5% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Heerenveen vs AZ AlkmaarFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.75 · −2.8% CLV | 2-3 | WON |
| Arlanda vs UmeaFootball · Division 2. North | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.73-13773/1000.73-1.37+0.73from 1.88 · +8.7% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Arka Gdynia vs LKS LodzFootball · League 1 | first seen 32m before | X2Double Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Saigon Heat vs Nha Trang DolphinsBasketball · VBA. Semi-finals. Best of 3 | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 88-85 | WON |
| Telstar vs CambuurFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.60 · −5.9% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Veres Rivne vs ZoryaFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Selangor vs MelakaFootball · Superleague | first seen 17m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.11-90911/1000.11-9.09+0.11from 1.09 · −1.8% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Orgryte vs HammarbyFootball · Premier League | first seen 2m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20from 1.20 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Ayutthaya United vs FC RatchaburiFootball · Premier League | first seen 2m before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Eibar vs GranadaFootball · Segunda Division | first seen 2m before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 3-0 | LOST |
| Sukhothai vs Buriram UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 2m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28from 1.33 · +3.9% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Paide Linnameeskond vs Levadia TallinnFootball · Superleague | first seen 22m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.55 · +14.8% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
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