Leiria vs Tondela
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 2-0
· first seen 5h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3965
3964 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−215.5u
over 3964u staked
Yield
−5.4%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W2
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 741 | 55.2%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1495 | 62.3%60%–65% | −4.0pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1510 | 70.5%68%–73% | −4.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 204 | 71.1%65%–77% | −9.3pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
861
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.9u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2005 | 68.5% | −85.8u |
| Match winner | 1960 | 60.3% | −129.7u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 733 | 67.1% | −21.9u |
| Superleague | 336 | 61.3% | −40.0u |
| League 1 | 321 | 67.3% | −10.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 192 | 59.9% | +19.1u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 103 | 66.0% | −4.2u |
| Serie B | 99 | 61.6% | −8.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 74 | 64.9% | −5.2u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3965 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Division 2
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AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
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· first seen 4h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria vs TondelaFootball · Division 2 | first seen 5h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| VSG Altglienicke vs Chemie LeipzigFootball · Regional League. North-East | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.50 · +3.4% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Stuttgart 2Football · Bundesliga 3 | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.68-14717/250.68-1.47+0.68from 1.65 · −1.8% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Hibernians vs Zabbar St. PatrickFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Bochum vs OsnabruckFootball · Bundesliga 2 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.65 · −8.3% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Al Wasl Dubai vs Shabab Al Ahli DubaiFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 2.12+11228/251.12+1.12-0.89from 1.93 · −9.0% CLV | 0:3 | WON |
| Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BerlinFootball · Bundesliga 2 | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 2.40+1407/51.40+1.40-0.71from 2.55 · +6.3% CLV | 2:4 | WON |
| Wisla Plock vs Korona KielceFootball · Superleague | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Pohronie vs Tatran PresovFootball · League 2 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 3-1 | LOST |
| Sepahan vs Gol GoharFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri SofiaFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.97-10397/1000.97-1.03+0.97from 1.85 · −6.1% CLV | 0:2 | LOST |
| Al-Fayha vs AbhaFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.95 · +15.7% CLV | 1:1 | LOST |
| Al-Riyadh vs NeomFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.83-12083/1000.83-1.20+0.83from 1.93 · +5.5% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams AzarFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
| Aluminium Arak vs Kheybar KhorramabadFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Paykan vs Esteghlal KhuzestanFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| JaPS vs KaPaFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 1.90 · −11.6% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Akron Tolyatti vs CSKA MoscowFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.68-14717/250.68-1.47+0.68from 1.67 · −0.6% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Voluntari vs Otelul GalatiFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 2.60+1608/51.60+1.60-0.63from 2.80 · +7.7% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Vitebsk vs Naftan NovopolotskFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.42 · −2.1% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Drenica vs KF BallkaniFootball · Superliga | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| ENPPI vs Wadi DeglaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-3 | LOST |
| Terengganu vs SelangorFootball · Superleague | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0:3 | WON |
| Ansan Greeners vs DaeguFootball · K League 2 | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.38 · +2.2% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Jeonnam Dragons vs Cheonan CityFootball · K League 2 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.