Los Angeles Sparks (w) vs Phoenix Mercury (w)
Basketball · WNBA
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 87-94
· first seen 1h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3919
3918 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−209.9u
over 3918u staked
Yield
−5.4%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 728 | 55.2%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1481 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.9pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1495 | 70.6%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 200 | 70.5%64%–76% | −9.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
815
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.3u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 92 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1988 | 68.5% | −85.4u |
| Match winner | 1931 | 60.5% | −124.5u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 729 | 67.2% | −20.6u |
| Superleague | 329 | 60.8% | −41.4u |
| League 1 | 320 | 67.5% | −9.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 189 | 59.8% | +18.2u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 102 | 65.7% | −4.6u |
| Serie B | 96 | 61.5% | −8.8u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 69 | 65.2% | −4.6u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 54 | 61.1% | −5.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3919 picks with a captured kickoff.
Basketball · WNBA
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Basketball · WNBA
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Basketball · LNBP
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6h before
Football · Round of 16. First leg
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 6d 4h before
Football · Round of 16. First leg
X2Double Chance
· first seen 17m before
Football · Third qualifying round. Second leg
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 47m before
Football · Third qualifying round. Second leg
X2Double Chance
· first seen 17m before
Football · Third qualifying round. Second leg
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · Third qualifying round. Second leg
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Third qualifying round. Second leg
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Regional League. North
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Third qualifying rounds. Second leg
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Third qualifying round. Second leg
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Third qualifying round. Second leg
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Third qualifying round. Second leg
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Basketball · LNBP
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6h before
Basketball · WNBA
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Basketball · Liga Nacional
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 3d 4h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Sparks (w) vs Phoenix Mercury (w)Basketball · WNBA | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 87-94 | LOST |
| Las Vegas Aces (w) vs Washington Mystics (w)Basketball · WNBA | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | — | 86-76 | WON |
| Dorados vs Gambusinos de FresnilloBasketball · LNBP | first seen 6h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | — | 91-77 | WON |
| Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del ValleFootball · Round of 16. First leg | first seen 6d 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| Estudiantes La Plata vs Universidad CatolicaFootball · Round of 16. First leg | first seen 17m before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Lyon vs Sparta PragueFootball · Third qualifying round. Second leg | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37from 1.40 · +2.2% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Sturm vs FenerbahceFootball · Third qualifying round. Second leg | first seen 17m before | X2Double Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Celje vs Ararat ArmeniaFootball · Third qualifying round. Second leg | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.45 · 0.0% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Slovan Bratislava vs MjolbyFootball · Third qualifying round. Second leg | first seen 2m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Chippa United vs Richards BayFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Polokwane City vs StellenboschFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 3-3 | WON |
| Marumo Gallants vs Kruger UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| TS Galaxy vs Mamelodi SundownsFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.48-20812/250.48-2.08+0.48from 1.53 · +3.4% CLV | 2-3 | WON |
| NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiacos PiraeusFootball · Third qualifying round. Second leg | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Lubeck vs VfB OldenburgFootball · Regional League. North | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Helsingborg vs VarnamoFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 2.75+1757/41.75+1.75-0.57from 2.20 · −20.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Apollon Limassol vs BrannFootball · Third qualifying rounds. Second leg | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 2-4 | LOST |
| Kauno Zalgiris vs Dinamo ZagrebFootball · Third qualifying round. Second leg | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47from 1.40 · −4.8% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Sabah Baku vs AGF AarhusFootball · Third qualifying round. Second leg | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 4-0 | WON |
| Bodo/Glimt vs Union Saint-GilloiseFootball · Third qualifying round. Second leg | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.65 · −2.9% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Diablos Rojos vs Fuerza RegiaBasketball · LNBP | first seen 6h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20derived | — | 94-95 | LOST |
| Seattle Storm (w) vs Chicago Sky (w)Basketball · WNBA | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | — | 97-88 | WON |
| Puerto Montt vs Espanol OsornoBasketball · Liga Nacional | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.10-10001/100.10-10.00+0.10derived | — | 82-79 | WON |
| Union Santa Fe vs Central Cordoba SdEFootball · Premier League | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.70 · 0.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Deportivo Cuenca vs MantaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3d 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 5.70+47047/104.70+4.70-0.21from 6.00 · +5.3% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.