Eltham Wildcats vs Frankston Blues
Basketball · NBL 1. South. Final
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 75-78
· first seen 2h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3913
3912 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.6%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−208.9u
over 3912u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 724 | 55.2%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1480 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1494 | 70.5%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 200 | 70.5%64%–76% | −9.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
809
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.2u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 91 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1986 | 68.5% | −84.8u |
| Match winner | 1927 | 60.5% | −124.1u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 729 | 67.2% | −20.6u |
| Superleague | 329 | 60.8% | −41.4u |
| League 1 | 320 | 67.5% | −9.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 189 | 59.8% | +18.2u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 101 | 66.3% | −3.6u |
| Serie B | 96 | 61.5% | −8.8u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 69 | 65.2% | −4.6u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 54 | 61.1% | −5.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3913 picks with a captured kickoff.
Basketball · NBL 1. South. Final
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eltham Wildcats vs Frankston BluesBasketball · NBL 1. South. Final | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23derived | — | 75-78 | LOST |
| North Eastern MetroStars vs Croydon KingsFootball · South Australia. National Premier League | first seen 7h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Shimizu S-Pulse vs Yokohama F-MarinosFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| West Torrens Birkalla vs Adelaide United 2Football · South Australia. National Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.06-16673/500.06-16.67+0.06from 1.06 · 0.0% CLV | 3-4 | LOST |
| Slavia Prague U19 vs Pardubice U19Football · U19. Youth league | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Kashima Antlers vs Nagoya GrampusFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.78 · −3.8% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Yenisey vs KAMAZFootball · League 1. Season 26/27 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | 1.73-13773/1000.73-1.37+0.73from 1.75 · +1.2% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Mito HollyHock vs Gamba OsakaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Teplice U19 vs Banik Ostrava U19Football · U19. Youth league | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 1-2 | WON |
| Velke Hamry vs SK ZapyFootball · League 3 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.55 · +6.9% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| Altona City vs Kingston CityFootball · Victoria. National Premier League 3 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 2.65+16533/201.65+1.65-0.61from 2.45 · −7.5% CLV | 1-4 | LOST |
| APIA Tigers U20 vs Southern Districts Raiders U20Football · U20. New South Wales. National Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.55 · +1.3% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Metaloglobus Bucharest vs Viitorul SelimbarFootball · League 2 | first seen 46m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 3-1 | WON |
| Gloria Bistrita vs Concordia ChiajnaFootball · League 2 | first seen 46m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Bihor Oradea vs Targu MuresFootball · League 2 | first seen 46m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Ramnicu Valcea vs CSM SlatinaFootball · League 2 | first seen 46m before | X2Double Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Monaro Panthers vs Canberra CroatiaFootball · Capital Territory. National Premier League | first seen 31m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 2.35+13527/201.35+1.35-0.74from 2.40 · +2.1% CLV | 2-3 | LOST |
| Sturt Lions (r) vs Campbelltown City (r)Football · South Australia. Reserve Premier league | first seen 1m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 3-6 | LOST |
| West Adelaide (r) vs Playford City Patriots (r)Football · South Australia. Reserve Premier league | first seen 1m before | X2Double Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1-3 | WON |
| North Eastern MetroStars (r) vs Croydon Kings (r)Football · South Australia. Reserve Premier league | first seen 1m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Melbourne Mustangs vs Adelaide AdrenalineIce Hockey · AIHL League | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.18-5569/500.18-5.56+0.18derived | 1.05-20001/200.05-20.00+0.05from 1.04 · −1.0% CLV | 7-1 | WON |
| Western Knights vs BalcattaFootball · Western Australia. National Premier League | first seen 47m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
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| Sydney Bears vs Perth ThunderIce Hockey · AIHL League | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.80 · −2.7% CLV | 10-5 | WON |
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