Afturelding vs Grindavik
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived
- Feed close
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.30 · +4.0% CLV
- Score
- 4-1
· first seen 1h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
4028
4027 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−215.2u
over 4027u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L2
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 764 | 55.4%52%–59% | −0.5pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1513 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1529 | 70.3%68%–73% | −4.7pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 207 | 71.5%65%–77% | −8.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
924
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±86.7u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2028 | 68.6% | −85.5u |
| Match winner | 2000 | 60.3% | −129.7u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 739 | 67.3% | −21.1u |
| Superleague | 341 | 61.3% | −40.4u |
| League 1 | 325 | 67.1% | −11.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 207 | 59.4% | +18.8u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 104 | 65.4% | −5.2u |
| Serie B | 101 | 62.4% | −7.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 79 | 63.3% | −5.8u |
| Championship | 76 | 65.8% | −4.4u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 4028 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afturelding vs GrindavikFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.30 · +4.0% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Shamrock Rovers vs FC DundalkFootball · Premier League | first seen 46m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.65 · −13.2% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Ammanford vs Colwyn BayFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20from 1.33 · +10.8% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Cliftonville vs CrusadersFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.50 · +3.4% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Derry City vs Sligo RoversFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.40 · +5.3% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Brugge vs KortrijkFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.18-5569/500.18-5.56+0.18from 1.25 · +5.9% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| The New Saints vs HaverfordwestFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.14-7147/500.14-7.14+0.14from 1.28 · +12.3% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Bray Wanderers vs Finn HarpsFootball · Division 1 | first seen 31m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20from 1.25 · +4.2% CLV | 5-0 | WON |
| Holywell Town vs Connahs QuayFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28from 1.37 · +7.0% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Flint Town United vs Barry TownFootball · Premier League | first seen 31m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 2.35+13527/201.35+1.35-0.74from 2.30 · −2.1% CLV | 2-3 | WON |
| Blau Weiss Linz vs Wacker InnsbruckFootball · League 1 | first seen 16m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.55 · +1.3% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Boluspor vs ManisaFootball · League 1 | first seen 16m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27from 1.47 · +15.7% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Aarau vs NyonnaisFootball · Challenge League | first seen 1m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.40 · +7.7% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv PlovdivFootball · League 1 | first seen 1m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.35 · +1.5% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Mornar Bar vs Arsenal TivatFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.57 · +1.3% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Dordrecht vs Jong AjaxFootball · Division 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.68-14717/250.68-1.47+0.68from 1.40 · −16.7% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Deportivo Binacional vs Union MinasFootball · Division 2 | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.52 · +21.6% CLV | 1-8 | WON |
| UTA Arad vs Rapid BucurestiFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 2.75+1757/41.75+1.75-0.57from 2.70 · −1.8% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Rapperswil-JonaFootball · Challenge League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.42 · −5.3% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Hannover 96 2 vs HSC HannoverFootball · Regional League. North | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.50 · +3.4% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Middelfart vs BrabrandFootball · 2 division | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.58-17229/500.58-1.72+0.58from 1.60 · +1.3% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Prostejov vs KarvinaFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.70 · 0.0% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Dukla Prague vs Hanacka Slavia KromerizFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.58-17229/500.58-1.72+0.58from 1.53 · −3.2% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Opava vs KladnoFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.60 · −1.8% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Sellier and Bellot Vlasim vs Viktoria ZizkovFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.83-12083/1000.83-1.20+0.83from 1.85 · +1.1% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
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