Newcastle North Stars vs Canberra Brave
Ice Hockey · AIHL League
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 2.04+10426/251.04+1.04-0.96derived
- Feed close
- 2.17+117117/1001.17+1.17-0.85from 2.20 · +1.4% CLV
- Score
- 3-6
· first seen 47m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
4018
4017 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−214.6u
over 4017u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 760 | 55.4%52%–59% | −0.5pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1508 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1528 | 70.3%68%–73% | −4.7pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 207 | 71.5%65%–77% | −8.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
914
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±86.5u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2027 | 68.6% | −85.9u |
| Match winner | 1991 | 60.4% | −128.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 739 | 67.3% | −21.1u |
| Superleague | 341 | 61.3% | −40.4u |
| League 1 | 325 | 67.1% | −11.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 206 | 59.2% | +18.1u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 104 | 65.4% | −5.2u |
| Serie B | 101 | 62.4% | −7.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 79 | 63.3% | −5.8u |
| Championship | 76 | 65.8% | −4.4u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 4018 picks with a captured kickoff.
Ice Hockey · AIHL League
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Football · Superleague
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Football · Superleague
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle North Stars vs Canberra BraveIce Hockey · AIHL League | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 2.04+10426/251.04+1.04-0.96derived | 2.17+117117/1001.17+1.17-0.85from 2.20 · +1.4% CLV | 3-6 | LOST |
| Manly United vs NWS SpiritFootball · New South Wales. National Premier League | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 2.50+1503/21.50+1.50-0.67from 2.60 · +4.0% CLV | 0-4 | LOST |
| Perth Glory 2 vs Fremantle CityFootball · Western Australia. National Premier League | first seen 47m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.05+10521/201.05+1.05-0.95from 2.05 · 0.0% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Perth SC vs Perth RedStarFootball · Western Australia. National Premier League | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.10+11011/101.10+1.10-0.91from 2.10 · 0.0% CLV | 2-5 | LOST |
| Olympic Kingsway vs Sorrento PerthFootball · Western Australia. National Premier League | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20from 1.20 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| APIA Tigers vs Southern Districts RaidersFootball · New South Wales. National Premier League | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.45 · −10.5% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| SKA Khabarovsk vs Veles MoscowFootball · League 1. Season 26/27 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 2.80+1809/51.80+1.80-0.56from 2.80 · 0.0% CLV | 2-0 | LOST |
| O'Connor Knights vs Canberra White EaglesFootball · Capital Territory. National Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | 1.93-10893/1000.93-1.08+0.93from 2.20 · +14.0% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Western Sydney Wanderers 2 vs St. George SaintsFootball · New South Wales. National Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 2.15+11523/201.15+1.15-0.87from 2.07 · −3.7% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Devonport City vs Kingborough LionsFootball · Tasmania. National Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 2.17+117117/1001.17+1.17-0.85from 2.18 · +0.5% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Utah Royals (w) vs Bay (w)Football · Women. NWSL | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.50 · −3.2% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Seattle Storm (w) vs Portland (w)Basketball · WNBA | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | — | 82-84 | LOST |
| Sporting Lisbon vs Vitoria GuimaraesFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37from 1.23 · −10.2% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Ruch Chorzow vs Lechia GdanskFootball · League 1 | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.50 · 0.0% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Wolverhampton vs Blackburn RoversFootball · Championship | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.50 · 0.0% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Dagenham and Redbridge vs Farnham TownFootball · National League. South | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.57 · −10.3% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Connahs Quay vs TrefelinFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.27 · −5.9% CLV | 6-0 | WON |
| Red Star vs SochauxFootball · Ligue 2 | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92from 1.83 · −4.7% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Laval vs NantesFootball · Ligue 2 | first seen 32m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 2.05 · +2.5% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Grenoble vs MetzFootball · Ligue 2 | first seen 32m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 2.35+13527/201.35+1.35-0.74from 1.98 · −15.7% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Llandudno Town vs Holywell TownFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23from 1.35 · +9.8% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Reims vs DunkerqueFootball · Ligue 2 | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72from 1.73 · +0.6% CLV | 3-3 | LOST |
| Newroz vs Al Quwa Al JawiyaFootball · Superleague | first seen 17m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 4.00+3003/13.00+3.00-0.33from 4.00 · 0.0% CLV | 3-3 | LOST |
| Galatasaray vs Corum BelediyesporFootball · Superleague | first seen 17m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32from 1.18 · −10.6% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Legia Warsaw vs Radomiak RadomFootball · Superleague | first seen 17m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47from 1.55 · +5.4% CLV | 5-0 | WON |
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