Ayr United vs Stenhousemuir
Football · Championship
AwayMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived
- Feed close
- 3.15+21543/202.15+2.15-0.47from 3.10 · −1.6% CLV
- Score
- 0-1
· first seen 5h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7146
7141 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 61%–64%
Profit
−517.9u
over 7141u staked
Yield
−7.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
W1
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1480 | 55.3%53%–58% | −0.5pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2561 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2583 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 12 | 83.3%55%–95% | −7.3pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+8pp
11
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3963 | 58.5% | −347.1u |
| Double chance | 3183 | 67.8% | −170.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7146 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr United vs StenhousemuirFootball · Championship | first seen 5h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 3.15+21543/202.15+2.15-0.47from 3.10 · −1.6% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Treaty United vs Finn HarpsFootball · Division 1 | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.65 · +1.9% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Inverness vs Greenock MortonFootball · Championship | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32from 1.33 · +0.8% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Coleraine vs LinfieldFootball · Premier League | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.87-11587/1000.87-1.15+0.87from 2.00 · +7.0% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
| Raith Rovers vs LivingstonFootball · Championship | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 2.80+1809/51.80+1.80-0.56from 2.35 · −16.1% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| Italy vs BelgiumFootball · Division A. Group stage | first seen 5h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 3.30+23023/102.30+2.30-0.43from 3.20 · −3.0% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| Arbroath vs Queen's ParkFootball · Championship | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.77 · −1.7% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| MoDo vs LeksandsIce Hockey · Allsvenskan | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 2.38+13869/501.38+1.38-0.72derived | 2.50+1503/21.50+1.50-0.67from 2.35 · −6.0% CLV | 1-6 | LOST |
| Selestat Alsace HB vs Montpellier HandballHandball · Star League | first seen 5h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.18-5569/500.18-5.56+0.18derived | 1.13-76913/1000.13-7.69+0.13from 1.13 · 0.0% CLV | 30-38 | WON |
| Girona vs AlbaceteFootball · Segunda Division | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.52 · −1.9% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Usam Nimes vs Dunkerque HBHandball · Star League | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.48-20812/250.48-2.08+0.48from 1.33 · −10.1% CLV | 27-25 | WON |
| Chambery Savoie Mt-Blanc Handball vs Tremblay en France HandballHandball · Star League | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.40 · 0.0% CLV | 31-44 | LOST |
| Pays D'aix Universite Club vs Caen HandballHandball · Star League | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.23 · −8.9% CLV | 32-25 | WON |
| Chartres Metropole Handball vs Cesson RennesHandball · Star League | first seen 5h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.70 · +5.9% CLV | 31-28 | WON |
| South Africa vs GuineaFootball · Qualifying | first seen 7m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.73-13773/1000.73-1.37+0.73from 1.85 · +6.9% CLV | 2:1 | WON |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsBaseball · MLB | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.96-10424/250.96-1.04+0.96derived | — | 4-3 | LOST |
| Geneve Servette vs Fribourg-GotteronIce Hockey · National league | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 2.13+113113/1001.13+1.13-0.88derived | 2.75+1757/41.75+1.75-0.57from 2.45 · −10.9% CLV | 4-3 | LOST |
| Fenerbahce vs Virtus BolognaBasketball · Regular season | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 78-68 | WON |
| Rapperswill vs DavosIce Hockey · National league | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 2.56+15639/251.56+1.56-0.64derived | 2.30+13013/101.30+1.30-0.77from 2.35 · +2.2% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Lowen Frankfurt vs Nurnberg Ice TigersIce Hockey · DEL | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 2.33+133133/1001.33+1.33-0.75derived | 2.35+13527/201.35+1.35-0.74from 2.55 · +8.5% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Schoningen vs Drochtersen-AsselFootball · Regional League. North | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.62 · −4.7% CLV | 3-3 | LOST |
| Straubing Tigers vs ERC IngolstadtIce Hockey · DEL | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 2.38+13869/501.38+1.38-0.72derived | 2.17+117117/1001.17+1.17-0.85from 2.25 · +3.7% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Adler Mannheim vs KrefeldIce Hockey · DEL | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.40 · −3.4% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Rodovre vs Rungsted IKIce Hockey · Metal Ligaen | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.60 · +2.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Grizzlys Wolfsburg vs Schwenninger Wild WingsIce Hockey · DEL | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.22-45511/500.22-4.55+0.22derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.70 · +3.0% CLV | 3-4 | LOST |
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