Santa Clara vs Nacional Madeira
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 2-2
· first seen 1h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3922
3921 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−210.0u
over 3921u staked
Yield
−5.4%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W1
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 728 | 55.2%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1482 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1497 | 70.5%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 200 | 70.5%64%–76% | −9.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
818
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 92 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1989 | 68.5% | −85.0u |
| Match winner | 1933 | 60.5% | −125.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 729 | 67.2% | −20.6u |
| Superleague | 331 | 60.7% | −41.9u |
| League 1 | 320 | 67.5% | −9.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 189 | 59.8% | +18.2u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 102 | 65.7% | −4.6u |
| Serie B | 96 | 61.5% | −8.8u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 69 | 65.2% | −4.6u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 54 | 61.1% | −5.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3922 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
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X2Double Chance
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X2Double Chance
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HomeMatch Winner
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AwayMatch Winner
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Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
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Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
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Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
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Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
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Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Premier League
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· first seen 55m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 19h before
Football · Premier League
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· first seen 10m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 10m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 45m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 0m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara vs Nacional MadeiraFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Fram Reykjavik vs KR ReykjavikFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 2-5 | WON |
| Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc RunaFootball · Premier League | first seen 45m before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 0-3 | WON |
| Sirius vs BrommapojkarnaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43from 1.33 · −7.0% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Vasteras vs DjurgardensFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.80 · +16.1% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| Transinvest vs PanevezysFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.65 · +3.1% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| Karpaty Lviv vs LNZ LebedinFootball · Premier League | first seen 58m before | X2Double Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 3-0 | LOST |
| Nacional Montevideo vs Boston RiverFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.42-23821/500.42-2.38+0.42from 1.50 · +5.6% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Delfin vs OrenseFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Defensa y Justicia vs Newell's Old BoysFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Gimnasia La Plata vs Barracas CentralFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Melgar vs CajamarcaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.25 · +5.0% CLV | 2-4 | LOST |
| Breidablik vs Valur ReykjavikFootball · Premier League | first seen 55m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.55 · −16.2% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
| Independiente vs PlatenseFootball · Premier League | first seen 19h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 1.80 · +1.1% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Instituto Cordoba vs Gimnasia y Esgrima MendozaFootball · Premier League | first seen 19h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Benfica vs Academico ViseuFootball · Premier League | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.10-10001/100.10-10.00+0.10from 1.10 · 0.0% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Gil Vicente vs Rio AveFootball · Premier League | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 2.05+10521/201.05+1.05-0.95from 1.90 · −7.3% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Zrinjski Mostar vs Celik ZenicaFootball · Premier League | first seen 45m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.25 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Sportivo LuquenoFootball · Premier League | first seen 45m before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
| KA Akureyri vs HafnarfjordurFootball · Premier League | first seen 0m before | X2Double Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Stjarnan vs KeflavikFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 3.55+25551/202.55+2.55-0.39from 3.45 · −2.8% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| Deportivo Garcilaso vs Deportivo MoqueguaFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo WanderersFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| San Lorenzo Almagro vs HuracanFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Vikingur Reykjavik vs IB VestmannaeyjarFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.35 · +3.8% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.